Bitcoin pay piyasaları için çeşitlendirici olmaktan fazlasını sağlar mı? Rusya-Ukrayna ve İsrail-Hamas savaşlarını kapsayan dönemden kanıtlar

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 90 - 101

Fahrettin Söker

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Bitcoin’in Rusya-Ukrayna ve İsrail-Hamas savaşını kapsayan dönemde pay piyasaları için sağlayabileceği çeşitlendirici, korunma veya güvenli liman özelliği incelenmektedir. İncelemede Bitcoin ile S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, BIST 100, EuroNext 100, MSCI Avrupa, MSCI Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar ve MSCI Dünya piyasaları endekslerinin günlük getirileri kullanılarak 24.02.2022 ile 30.08.2024 tarihleri arasında DCC GARCH ve kantil bazlı regresyon modeliyle analizler yapılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda savaş döneminde Bitcoin’in tüm pay piyasaları için genel olarak çeşitlendirici bir özellik sağladığı tespit edilmiş ve bu dönemde meydana gelen pay piyasalarındaki aşırı düşüşlerde zayıf veya güçlü olan bir güvenli liman özelliği sağladığı belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca Bitcoin’in çeşitlendirici, korunma veya güvenli liman özelliğinin test edilmesinde EUR, GBP ve TL para birimlerindeki değerleri de dikkate alınmış ve sonuçlarda çeşitlendirici özelliğinin yine devam ettiği belirlenmiş ancak güvenli liman tarafında zayıf güvenli liman özelliğine yönelik sonuçların arttığı gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar savaş döneminde Bitcoin’in pay piyasaları için çeşitlendirici olarak değerlendirilmesinin daha uygun olduğunu göstermekte ayrıca güvenli liman potansiyeli olmakla birlikte tam bir güvenli liman özelliğinin olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar bu yönüyle etkilerinin devam ettiği savaş döneminde Bitcoin’in pay piyasaları için rolünü ortaya koyması açısından yatırımcılara, portföy yöneticilerine ve araştırmacılara önemli çıkarım sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

Bitcoin, Çeşitlendirici, Güvenli Liman, Savaş Dönemi

Can Bitcoin be more than a diversifier for stock markets? Evidence from the period covering the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars

Abstract

This study examines the diversification, hedging, or safe haven features that Bitcoin can provide for stock markets during the period covering the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars. In the study, analysis was made with DCC GARCH and quantile-based regression models using the daily returns of Bitcoin and S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, BIST 100, EuroNext 100, MSCI Europe, MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI World Markets indices between 24.02.2022 and 30.08.2024. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that Bitcoin provided a general diversifying feature for all stock markets during the war period and that it provided a safe haven feature that was weak or strong in extreme declines in the stock markets that occurred during this period. In addition, the values of EUR, GBP, and TL currencies were also taken into account in testing Bitcoin's diversifying, hedging, or safe haven features, and it was determined that its diversification feature continued in the results, but it was observed that the results regarding the weak safe haven feature increased on the safe haven side. The results obtained from the study show that it is more appropriate to evaluate Bitcoin as a diversifier for equity markets during the war period. It also reveals that although it has safe haven potential, it does not have the characteristics of a complete safe haven. In this respect, the results provide important inferences for investors, portfolio managers, and researchers in terms of revealing the role of Bitcoin in stock markets during the war period, when its effects continue.

Keywords

Bitcoin, Diversification, Safe Haven, War Period

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