Vergi Gelirlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Bölgesel Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2019, Issue: 60, 155 - 178, 29.04.2019

Ersin Nail Sağdıç

Abstract

Devletin asli ve diğer görevlerini yerini
getirebilmek amacıyla ihtiyaç duyduğu finansman kaynaklarının başında vergiler
gelmektedir. Vergiler sadece bir kamu geliri olmayıp aynı zamanda siyasi, mali,
sosyal ve iktisadi açıdan etki yaratan önemli bir araçtır. Bu açıdan devletin
hem gelirlerinin önemli bir kısmını oluşturan hem de ekonomik ve diğer
sahalarda etkili bir role sahip olan vergi gelirlerinin hangi faktörlerden
etkilendikleri ve belirlendikleri ülkeler açısından büyük önem arz etmektedir.
Nitekim bir çok ekonomik olgu ya da olayın nedeni veya sonucu olan aynı zamanda
devletin en önemli finansman aracı olan vergi gelirlerini Türkiye temelinde
incelemek ve analiz etmek bu çalışmanın temel çıkış noktasını oluşturmuştur. Bu
çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de vergi gelirlerini belirleyen faktörleri
belirleyerek bu faktörlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkilerini analiz
etmektir. Analiz veri kısıtı nedeniyle, 1990-2001 yılları arasında iller bazı
temelinde, 2004-2011 yılları arasında ise 26 Kalkınma Bölgesi temelinde
kategorize edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’de kişi başına milli
gelir düzeyi, sanayi sektörünün milli gelir içerisindeki payı, hizmetler
sektörünün milli gelir içerisindeki payı ve ticari dışa açıklık derecesi vergi
gelirlerini olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. 
Tam tersine Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün bölgesel açıdan verimli olarak
vergilendirilmediği ve vergi gelirlerini negatif yönde etkilediği tespit
edilmiştir. Benzer şekilde kamu harcamaları da bölgesel açıdan vergi
gelirlerini negatif etkilemektedir.

Keywords

Vergi Gelirleri, Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyen Faktörler, Vergileme, Panel Veri Analizi, Bölgesel Vergi Analizi

Regional Analysis of the Determinants of Tax Revenues: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Taxes are among the main sources of finance needed by a state
to fulfil its essential and other duties. Taxes are not only a public revenue,
but they are also an important tool that has an effect in political, financial,
social and economic scales. In this sense, the factors that affect and
determine the tax revenues, comprising an important part of a state’s revenues
and having an influential role in both economy and other fields, carry a huge
importance for countries. Thus, the basic starting point of this study is to
examine and analyse tax revenues, which are the reason or result of various
economic facts or events and which are the most important source of finance as
well, on the basis of Turkey. The purpose of this study is to identify the
determinants of tax revenues and analyse the effects of these determinants on
tax revenues. Due to the data constraint in Turkey, the analysis has been
categorized on the basis of provinces between the years of 1990-2001 and on the
basis of 26 Development Regions between 2004 and 2011. According to the
results, GDP per capita, the shares of industry and service sectors in GDP and
the ratio of export plus imports to GDP positively affect tax revenues in
Turkey. On the other hand, it has been identified that taxes are not collected
by efficiently in agriculture sector on a regional scale and that this process
affects tax revenues in a negative way. Similarly, public expenditures also
affect the regional tax revenues negatively.

Keywords

Tax Revenues, The Determinants of Tax Revenues, Taxation, Panel Data Analysis, Regional Tax Analysis

References

• Adam, C. S., Bevan, D. L., & Chambas, G. (2001). Exchange rate regimes and revenue performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 64(1), 173-213.
• Addison, T., & Levin, J. (2012). The determinants of tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nationell konferens i nationalekonomi, Stockholm, 1-21.
• Addison, T., & Murshed, S. M. (2001). The fiscal dimensions of conflict and reconstruction (World Institute for Development Economics Research Discussion Paper No. 2001/49).
• IDEAS web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/dp2001-49.pdf.
• Agbeyegbe, T., Stotsky, J. G., & WoldeMariam, A. (2004). Trade liberalization, exchange rate changes, and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa (International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 04/178). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Trade-Liberalization-Exchange-Rate-Changes-and-Tax-Revenue-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-17716.
• Ahmed, Q. M., & Mohammed, S. D. (2010). Determinant of tax buoyancy: empirical evidence from developing countries. European Journal of Social Sciences, 13(3), 408-414.
• Aizenman, J., & Jinjarak, Y. (2009). Globalization and developing countries - a shrinking tax base?. The Journal of Development, 45(5), 653-671.
• Ajaz, T., & Ahmed, E. (2010). The effect of corruption and governance on tax revenues. The Pakistan Development Review, 49(4), 405-417.
• Aktan, C. C. (2012). Vergi psikolojisinin temelleri ve vergi ahlakı. Çimento İşveren Dergisi, 26(1), 14-22.
• Aktan, C. C., & Çoban, H. (2006). Vergileme ekonomisi ve vergileme psikolojisi perspektiflerinden vergiye karşı tutum ve davranışları belirleyen faktörler. C. C. Aktan, D. Dileyici & İ. Y. Vural (Ed.), Vergileme ekonomisi ve vergileme psikolojisi içinde (ss. 137-158). Ankara: Seçkin Kitabevi.
• Aktan, C. C., Dileyici, D., & Saraç, Ö. (2006). Vergilere karşı tepkiler ve vergilerin ahlaki ve sosyo psikolojik sınırları. C. C. Aktan, D. Dileyici & İ. Vural (Ed.), Vergileme ekonomisi ve vergileme psikolojisi içinde (ss. 159-171). Ankara: Seçkin Kitabevi.
• Ansari, M. M. (1982). Determinants of tax ratio: a cross-country analysis. Economic and Political Weekly, 17(25), 1035-1042.
• Ay, H. M., & Talaşlı, E. (2008). Ülkelerin ekonomik gelişmişlik seviyeleri ve vergi yapıları arasındaki ilişki. Maliye Dergisi, 154, 135-155.
• Bağdigen, M., & Tunçer, M. (2004). Yolsuzluğun kamu gelirleri üzerine etkisi belediye gelirleri üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Vergi Dünyası, 272, 168-174.
• Bahl, R. (2004). Reaching the hardest to tax: consequences and possibilities. R. Bahl, J. R. Alm, S. Wallace & J. Martinez-Vazquez (Eds.), Taxing the hard-to-tax: lessons from theory and practice içinde (ss. 337-354). UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Bahl, R. W. (1971). A regression approach to tax effort and tax ratio analysis . International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 18(3), 570-612.
• Bakırtaş, D. (2012). Yolsuzluğun vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İİBF Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 19(2), 87-98.
• Baunsgaard, T., & Keen, M. (2010). Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization. Journal of Public Economics, 94, 563-577.
• Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634-647.
• Begum, L. (2007). A panel study on tax effort and tax buoyancy with special reference to Bangladesh (Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Research Department Bangladesh Bank Working Paper No. 715).
• Besley, T., & Persson, T. (2008). Wars and state capacity. Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2/3), 522-530.
• Bird, R. M., Martinez-Vazquez, J., & Torgler, B. (2008). Tax effort in developing countries and high income countries: the impact of corruption, voice and accountability. Economic Analysis and Policy, 38(1), 55-71.
• Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Canbay, T., & Çetin, G. (2007). Vergi uyumu belirleyen bir faktör olarak vergi kültürü. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 52-66.
• Chand, S. K., & Moene, K. O. (1997). Controlling fiscal corruption (IMF Working Paper No. 97/100). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Controlling-Fiscal-Corruption-2315. Chaudhry, I. S., & Munir, F. (2010). Determinants of law tax revenue in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 30(2), 439-452.
• Chelliah, R. (1971). Trends in taxation in developing countries. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 18(2), 254-331.
• Chelliah, R. J., Baas, H. J., & Kelly, M. R. (1975). Tax ratios and tax effort in developing countries,1969-71. IMF Staff Papers, 22(1), 187-205.
• Dioda, L. (2012). Structural determinants of tax revenue in latin america and the caribbean, 1990-2009. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), http://www.eclac.cl/cgi-bin/getProd.asp?xml=/mexico/noticias/documentosdetrabajo/8/ 48538/P48538.xml&xsl=/mexico/tpl/p38f.xsl. Erişim tarihi: 06.03.2014.
• Dökmen, G. (2012). Yolsuzlukların vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi: dinamik panel veri analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 13(1), 41-51.
• Drummond, P., Daal, W., Srivastava, N., & Oliveira, L. E. (2012). Mobilizing revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa; empirical norms and key determinants (IMF Working Paper No. 12/108). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Mobilizing-Revenue-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Empirical-Norms-and-Key-Determinants-25882
• Durkaya, M., & Ceylan, S. (2006). Vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme. Maliye Dergisi, 150, 79-89.
• Edizdoğan, N., & Çelikkaya, A. (2010). Vergilerin ekonomik analizi. Bursa: Dora Yayınları.
• Ekici, M. S. (2009). Vergi gelirlerini etkileyen ekonomik ve sosyal faktörler. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(30), 200-233.
• Eltony, M. N. (2002). Determinants of tax efforts in Arab countries. Arab Planning Institute Working Paper, 207.
• Frees, E. W. (1995). Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 69(2), 393-414.
• Friedman, M. (1937). The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32(200), 675-701.
• Gencel, U., & Kuru, E. (2012). Vergi kültürü ve vergi politikaları etkileşimi: Türkiye değerlendirilmesi. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(20), 29-60.
• Ghura, D. (1998). Tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: effects of economic policies and corruption (IMF Working Paper No. 98/135). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp98135.pdf
• Giray, F. (2005). Yolsuzluk ve yolsuzluğun vergi yapısı üzerindeki etkileri. İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32, 111-137.
• Gould, A. C. (2001). Party size and policy outcomes: an empirical analysis of taxation in democracies. Studies in Comparative International Development, 36(2), 3-26.
• Gök, A. K. (2007). Vergi direncinin gelişimi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, XXII(1), 143-163.
• Gökbunar, A. R., Selim, S., & Yanıkkaya, H. (2008). Türkiye'de vergi ahlakını belirleyen faktörler üzerine bir araştırma. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 18(63), 69-94.
• Gupta, A. S. (2007). Determinants of tax revenue efforts in developing countries (IMF Working Paper No. 07-184). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Determinants-of-Tax-Revenue-Efforts-in-Developing-Countries-21040.
• Gupta, S., Clements, B., Pivovarsky, A., & Tiongson, E. R. (2003). Foreign aid and revenue response: does the composition of aid matter? (IMF Working Paper No. 03/176). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03176.pdf.
• Güloğlu, B., & İspir, M. S. (2011). Doğal işsizlik oranı mı? işsizlik histerisi mi? Türkiye için sektörel panel birim kök sınaması analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 205-215.
• Heller, P. S. (1975). A model of public fiscal behavior in developing countries: aid, investment, and taxation. The American Economic Review, 65(3), 429-445.
• Imam, P. A., & Jacobs, D. F. (2007). Effect of corruption on tax revenues in the middle east (IMF Working Paper No. 07/270). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Effect-of-Corruption-on-Tax-Revenues-in-the-Middle-East-20005.
• Javid, A. Y., & Arif, U. (2012). Analysis of revenue potential and revenue effort in developing Asian countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 51(4), 365-378.
• Karagöz, K. (2013). Determinants of tax revenue: does sectorial composition matter. Journal of Finance, Accounting and Management, 4(2), 50-63.
• Karakoç, Y. (2004). Hukuki nedenlerden kaynaklanan vergi kayıp ve kaçakları. 19. Maliye Sempozyumu “Türkiye'de Vergi Kayıp ve Kaçakları, Önlenmesi Yolları”, Antalya, 10-14 Mayıs, 90-114.
• Karran, T. (1985). The determinants of taxation in Britain: an empirical test. Journal of Public Policy, 5(3), 365-386.
• Kenny, L. W., & Winer, S. L. (2006). Tax systems in the world: an empirical investigation into the importance of tax bases, administration costs, scale and political regime. International Tax and Public Finance, 13, 181-215.
• Khattry, B., & Rao, J. M. (2002). Fiscal faux pas?: an analysis of the revenue implications of trade liberalization. World Development, 30(8), 1431-1444.
• Leuthold, J. H. (1991). Tax shares in developing economies a panel study. Journal of Development Economics, 35, 173-185.
• Lotz, J. R., & Morss, E. R. (1967). Measuring "tax effort" in developing countries. IMF Working Paper, 14(3), 478-499.
• Lotz, J. R., & Morss, E. R. (1970). A theory of tax level determinants for developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 18(3), 328-341.
• Mahdavi, S. (2008). The level and composition of tax revenue in developing countries: evidence from unbalanced panel data. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17, 607-617.
• Mutascu, M. (2012). Influence of clime conditions on tax revenues (MPRA Paper No. 40324). Munich Personal RePEc Archive web sitesinden erişildi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40324/.
• Mutascu, M., & Danuletiu, D. (2013). The literacy impact on tax revenues (Economics Discussion Papers No. 2013-63). Economics web sitesinden erişildi: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-63.
• Nargeleçekenler, M. (2011). Hisse senedi fiyatları ve fiyat/kazanç oranı ilişkisi: panel verilerle sektörel bir analiz. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(2), 165-184.
• Örücü, A. İ., Aysu, A., & Bakırtaş, D. (2012). Yolsuzluğun kurumlar vergisi gelirleri üzerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 163, 539-556.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (Cambridge University Working Paper No. 0435). IDEAS web sitesinden erişildi: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0435.pdf.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross seciton dependence . Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
• Piancastelli, M. (2001). Measuring the tax effort of developed and developing countries: cross country panel data analysis - 1985/95 (IPEA Working Paper No. 818). SSRN web sitesinden erişildi: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=283758.
• Pınar, A. (2001). Kayıtdışı ekonomi ve vergi kaybı: Türkiye için iller bazında bir tahmin (Ankara Üniversitesi SBF GETA Working Paper No. 37). http://www.politics.ankara.edu.tr/dergi/tartisma/2001/vergi-kaybi.pdf adresinden erişildi.
• Potanlar, S. K., Samimi, A. J., & Roshan, A. R. (2010). Corruption and tax revenues: new evidence from some developing countries. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 4(9), 4218-4222.
• Profeta, P., & Scabrosetti, S. (2010). The political economy of taxation lessons from developing countries. Cheltenham (UK): Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Rao, M. G. (1979). Economic and political determinants of states tax revenue: a study of four states. Economic and Political Weekly, 14(47), 1925-1932.
• Savaşan, F. (2004). Türkiye'de kayıtdışı ekonomi ve vergi kaybı tahminleri. 19. Maliye Sempozyumu “Türkiye'de Vergi Kayıp ve Kaçakları, Önlenmesi Yolları”, Antalya, 10-14 Mayıs, 51-73.
• Schmölders, G. (1976). Genel vergi teorisi (S. Turhan, Çev.). İstanbul: İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi.
• Shin, K. (1969). International difference in tax ratio. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(2), 213-220.
• Sookram, S., & Saridakis, G. (2009). The effect of economics factors on the tax ratio in Trinidad and Tobago. The Journal of Developing Areas, 42(2), 111-128.
• Stotsky, J., & WoldeMariam, A. (1997). Tax effort in Sub-Saharan Africa (IMF Working Paper No. 97/107). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97107.pdf.
• Şenyüz, D. (1995). Vergilendirmede yükümlü psikolojisi. Bursa.
• Tait, A. A., Grätz, W. L., & Eichengreen, B. J. (1979). International comparisons of taxation for selected developing countries, 1972-76. IMF Staff Papers, 26(1), 123-156.
• Tanzi, V. (1977). Inflation, lags in collection, and the real value of tax revenue. IMF Staff Papers, 24(1), 154-167.
• Tanzi, V. (1981). A statistical evaluation of taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa. V. Tanzi, M. Z. Yücelik, P. S. Griffith & C. A. Aguirre (Eds.), Taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa içinde (ss. 45-50). Washington: International Monetary Fund.
• Tanzi, V. (1987). Quantitative characteristics of the tax systems of developing countries. D. Newbery & N. Stern (Eds.), The theory of taxation for developing countries içinde (ss. 205-241). New York: Oxford University Press.
• Tanzi, V. (1992). Structural factors and tax revenue in developing countries: a decade of evidence. I. Goldin & L. Winters (Eds.), Open economies: structural adjustment and agriculture içinde (ss. 267-289). Cambridge University Press.
• Tanzi, V. (1998). Corruption around the world: causes, consequences, scope, and cures (IMF Working Paper No. 98/63). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp9863.pdf.
• Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (1997). Corruption, public investment, and growth (IMF Working Paper No. 97/139). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97139.pdf.
• Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (2000). Corruption, growth, and public finances (IMF Working Paper No. 00/182). IMF Working Papers web sitesinden erişildi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Corruption-Growth-and-Public-Finances-3854.
• Teera, J. M. (2002). Determinants of tax revenue share in Uganda (University of Bath Working Paper, unpublished). http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.199.1722 adresinden erişildi.
• Teera, J. M., & Hudson, J. (2004). Tax performance: a comparative study. Journal of International Development, 16, 785-802.
• Tosuner, M., & Demir, İ. C. (2008). Ege bölgesi'nin vergi ahlakı düzeyi. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, X(II), 355-373.
• Tosuner, M., & Demir, İ. C. (2009). Vergi ahlâkının sosyal ve kültürel belirleyenleri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 14(1), 1-15.
• Weiss, S. J. (1969). Affecting the government revenue share in less developed countries. Social and Economic Studies , 18(4), 348-364.