Rüzgâr Enerji Santrali Değerlemesinde Geleneksel Değerleme Yöntemi ile Monte Carlo Simülasyonu’nun Karşılaştırılması

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 995 - 1016, 15.12.2022

Duygu Bıyıklı , Faik Ahmet Sesli , Pelin Kasap

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1181990

Abstract

Günümüzde büyük bütçeli yatırımların değerlemesinde, geleneksel değerleme yöntemlerinden İndirgenmiş Nakit Akışları (İNA)’na göre hesaplanan Net Bugünkü Değer (NBD), hem literatürde ki akademik çalışmalarda hem de yatırım değerleme uygulamalarında sıklıkla kullanılmaktadır. Bir süredir yatırım değerlemede simülasyonlara, hesaplama kolaylığı ve daha dinamik bir çalışma prensibine sahip olmaları açısından oldukça fazla rastlanmaktadır. Monte Carlo Simülasyonu (MCS), simülasyon uygulamalarında en sık kullanılan yöntemlerin başında gelmektedir. MCS’yi diğer değerleme yöntemlerinden ayıran en önemli özelliği, çalışmaya konu olan parametrelerin direk değerlerinin kullanılması yerine her birine belirli bir aralıkta ve türde olasılık dağılımının tanımlanması ve optimal sonuca göre değil sistemin davranışını anlamaya yönelik olmasıdır. Bu çalışma da 2021 yılı Haziran ayında yatırıma başlanıldığı düşünülen ve proje parametrelerinin bu yılda hazırlanan ön fizibilite raporları ve piyasa verilerine göre öngörülerek belirlendiği, Sinop İlinde 5 MW elektrik üretim kapasiteli %35 rüzgâr kapasite faktörüne sahip bir Rüzgâr Enerji Santrali (RES) değerlendirilmiştir. Bu RES’in hem geleneksel yöntemlerden NBD ile hem de Crystal Ball programı kullanılarak MCS ile değerlemesi yapılmış olup, iki yöntem arasında ki sonuçlar birbirleri ile karşılaştırılarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

Net Bugünkü Değer (NBD), Monte Carlo Simülasyonu (MCS), Crystal Ball, Rüzgâr Enerji Santrali (RES).

Comparison of Traditional Valuation Method and Monte Carlo Simulation in Wind Power Plant Valuation

Abstract

Today, Net Present Value (NPV), which is calculated according to Discounted Cash Flows (DNA), which is one of the traditional valuation methods, is frequently used in the valuation of large-budget investments, both in academic studies in the literature and in investment valuation applications. Simulations, which have been used in investment valuation applications for a while, are quite common in terms of ease of calculation and having a more dynamic working principle. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is one of the most frequently used methods in simulation applications. The most important feature that distinguishes MCS from other valuation methods is that instead of using the direct values of the parameters that are the subject of the study, the probability distribution is defined for each in a certain range and type, and it is aimed at understanding the behavior of the system, not according to the optimal result. In this study, a Wind Power Plant (RES) with a 5 MW electricity generation capacity and a wind capacity factor of 35% in the province of Sinop, which is thought to have started the investment market data prepared this year, was evaluated. This RES was evaluated both with NBD, which is one of the traditional methods, and with MCS using the Crystal Ball program, and the results between the two methods were evaluated by comparing them with each other.

Keywords

Net Present Value (NPV), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), Crystal Ball, Wind Power Plant (WPP)

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