Reel Çıktı (Reel GSYİH) ve İşsizlik Oranı İlişkisi: Euro Bölgesi İçin Okun Yasası Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 40, 197 - 210, 30.04.2019

Utku Altunöz

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Euro bölgesi için ekonomik büyüme ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişi Okun Yasası doğrultusunda 2000-2012 yılları için yıllık panel veri analizi ile test edilecektir. Bu amaçla işsizlik histerisi panel hata düzeltme ve panel bütünleşme ve çeşitli panel birim kök testleri yardımıyla testleri kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, Okun Yasasının geçerli olduğunu önermektedir. Bununla birlikte, eş bütünleşme katsayısı, Okun’un ABD ve diğer ülkeler için yapılan diğer çalışmalar için hesaplanan katsayısından düşüktür. ABD dünyadaki en güçlü ekonomiye sahip olduğu için analize dâhil edilmiştir. Ayrıca, büyüme ve işsizlik gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha değişken olduğundan, gelişmiş ülkelerle karşılaştırmak amacıyla analize dâhil edilmiştir.

Keywords

Okun Yasası, İşsizlik, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Eşbütünleşme, Euro Alanı

The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in the euro area (eurozone) is investigated in the light of Okun’s Law by using annual panel data set covering the period 2000-2012. Besides panel error correction and panel integration methods are used to test the link between unemployment and growth rate, unemployment hysteresis was examined by using several non-stationary panel unit root techniques for in all countries included to the study. Findings of this study propose that the Okun’s Law is valid. However, the cointegration coefficient is lower than the Okun’s coefficient calculated for the United States and other studies which was done for developed countries. The US is included in the analysis as it has the strongest economy in the world. In addition, since growth and unemployment are more volatile in developing countries, they are included in the analysis in order to compare with developed countries.

Keywords

Okun’s Law, Unemployment, Economic Growth, Panel Cointegration, Eurozone

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