Türkiye’de Bütçe Dengesi ve Finans Hesabı Dengesi Arasında Bir İlişki Var Mı?(Is There A Relationship Between The Budget Balance And Financial Account Balance In Turkey?)

Year 2015, , 651 - 662, 12.01.2016

Taner Turan

https://doi.org/10.18657/yecbu.16172

Abstract

Bütçe dengesi ve diğer makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişki uzun zamandan beri iktisatçıların ilgisini çekmiştir. Bu kapsamda bütçe dengesi ile finans hesabı dengesi arasında da bir ilişki olabileceği ileri sürülmüştür. Teorik olarak bütçe dengesi ve finans hesabı dengesinin değişik kanallarla birbirlerini etkilemeleri mümkündür. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1975-2014 dönemi verileri kullanılarak merkezi yönetim bütçe dengesi ve finans hesabı dengesi arasındaki ilişki hem eşbütünleşme hem de nedensellik testleri yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Değişkenlerin farklı bütünleşme derecelerine sahip olmaları nedeniyle ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. ARDL yaklaşımına göre bütçe dengesi ve finans hesabı dengesi arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığı anlaşılmışır. Ayrıca söz konusu değişkenler arasında bir Granger nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle test edilmiş ve bu değişkenler arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

The relationship between the government budget balance and other macroeconomic variables has drawn attention from economists for a long time. In this context it is argued that there would be a relation between the budget balance and financial account balance. Theory suggests that the budget balance and financial account balance would affect each other through different channels. This paper examines the relationship between the central government budget balance and financial account balance in Turkey by using annual data over the period 1975-2014 and employing ARDL approach to co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto approach to test for Granger causality. ARDL bounds testing results indicate that there is no long run relationship between the budget balance and financial account balance during the period examined. However, Granger causality tests suggest that there is a bi-directional causality between the budget balance and financial account balance.

Keywords

Bütçe dengesi, finans hesabı dengesi, eşbütünleşme ilişkisi, nedensellik

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