KAMU BÜYÜKLÜĞÜ DIŞA AÇIKLIK İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2018, , 501 - 511, 14.08.2018

Burcu Yılmaz Şahin , Servet Ceylan

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.323240

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Dışa açıklığın makroekonomik
değişkenlere ve ekonomik büyümeye etkisi yıllardır tartışılmaktadır. Dışa
açıklık yeni ekonomik faaliyetlere ve uzun dönemde üretimin sektörel
bileşiminde değişikliğe neden olabilmektedir. Bunlar, üretim yapısında ve kamu
harcamalarının toplam harcamalar içindeki payında bir değişiklik olabilir.
Küreselleşme ve serbest ticaret, kamu harcamaları ve büyümesini etkilemekte
fakat bu etkinin yönü tartışılmaktadır. Kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık
arasındaki ilişkiye ilişkin literatürde üç temel hipotez vardır. Bu hipotezler
telafi hipotezi, etkinlik hipotezi ve sanayisizleşme (deindustrialization)
hipotezidir. Telafi hipotezine göre, kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık arasında
pozitif bir ilişki, etkinlik hipotezine göre negatif bir ilişki vardır.
Sanayisizleşme hipotezine göre ise kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık arasında
nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur.   Bu
çalışmada, kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık ilişkisi, 1998:1-2016:4 dönemini
kapsayan üç aylık verilerle Türkiye ekonomisi için tahmin edilmiştir.
Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Engle-Granger Koentegrasyon ve Hata Düzeltme
Modeli kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik analizler, Türkiye
ekonomisinde, kamu büyüklüğü ile dışa açıklık arasında uzun dönemli ilişki ve
kısa dönemde de çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

Kamu Büyüklüğü, Dışa Açıklık, Engle-Granger Koentegrasyon, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

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