Haavelmo Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2019, , 277 - 294, 19.03.2019

Özge Barış Tüzemen , Rahmi Yamak

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.399459

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için Haavelmo Hipotezinin
geçerliliği 1986-2015 yılları kapsamında test edilmiştir. Sermaye girişleri ile
yurt içi tasarruflar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespitinde ARDL sınır
testi yaklaşımından yararlanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişki
Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. ARDL analizi sonuçları
Türkiye için Haavelmo Hipotezinin geçerliliğini desteklemektedir. Bir diğer
ifade ile sermaye girişleri yurt içi tasarrufları azaltmaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik
testi sonuçları portföy yatırımları ile iç tasarruflar arasında çift yönlü
nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Haavelmo Hipotezi, Yabancı Sermaye, Yurt İçi Tasarruf, ARDL

References

• Ahmad, S. (1990), “Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth: A Two Gap model for the Bangladesh Economy”, The Bangladesh Development Studies, XVIII, 55-79.
• Alamgir, Mohiuddin (1974), “Foreign Capital Inflow, Saving and Economic Growth-A Case Study of Bangladesh”, The Bangladesh Economic Review, 2 (2), 577-598.
• Angmortey, Barnabas N. ve Tandah-Offin, Patrick (2014), “Does Foreign Capital Crowd-Out Domestic Saving in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation of Ghana”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6 (8), 161-172.
• Areskoug, Kaj (1976), “Private Foreign Investment and Capital Formation in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24 (3), 539-547.
• Balaban, Betül (2016), “Yabancı Sermaye Girişlerinin Yurtiçi Tasarruflar Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Akademik Hassasiyetler, 117-128.
• Chen, Edward K. Y (1977), “Domestic Saving and Capital Inflow in Some Asian Countries: A Time Series Study”, Asian Survey, 17 (7), 679-687.
• Chenery, Hollis B. ve Strout, Alan M. (1966), “Foreign Assistance and Economic Development”, A.I.D. Discussion Paper, 7, 1-129.
• Chenery, Hollis B. ve Eckstein, Peter (1970), “Development Alternatives for Latin America”, Journal of Political economy, 78 , 966-1006.
• Dhar, Biswajit ve Roy S. Sinha (1996), “Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Savings-Investment Behaviour Developing Countries’ Experience”, Economic and Political Weekly, 31 (35), 2547-2551.
• Dickey, David ve Wayne Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (366), 427-431.
• Dickey, David ve Fuller, Wayne (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49 (4), 1057-1072.
• Dolado, Juan J. ve Lütkepohl, Helmut (1996), “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometrics Reviews, 15 (4), 369-386.
• Gupta, K. L. (1970), “Foreign Capital and Domestic Savings: A Test of Haavelmo’s Hypothesis with Cross-Country Data: A Comment”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 52 (2), 214-216.
• Haavelmo, Trygve (1963), Comment on Leontief Wassily, ““The Rates of Long-Run Economic Growth and Capital Transfer from Developed to Underdeveloped Areas”, Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarvm Scripta Varia (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1965).
• Kara, M. Akif ve Kar, Muhsin (2005), “Yabancı sermaye çeşitlerinin yatırımlar ve tasarruflar üzerine etkilerinin ekonometrik analizi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 20 (228), 93-108.
• Karahan, Özcan ve İpek, Evren (2015), “Türkiye’ye Yönelik Finansal Sermaye Akımlarının Tasarruf ve Yatırım Üzerine Etkisi”, YDÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, VII (2), 181-206.
• Mohamed, Mohamed Abdel-Wahed (2003), "The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow on Savings, Investment and Economic Growth Rate in Egypt: An Econometric Analysis." Scientific Journal of King Faisal University 4 (1), 279-308.
• Okafor, Luke E. ve Tyrowicz, Joanna (2008), “Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings in Developing Countries”, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Science Working Paper, 06, 1-25.
• Örnek, İbrahim (2008), “Yabancı Sermaye Akımlarının Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 63 (2), 200-217.
• Papanek, Gustav F. (1972), “The Effect of Aid and Other Resource Transfers on Savings and Growth in Less Developed Countries”, The Economic Journal, 82 (327), 934-950.
• Pesaran, Hashem, vd. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationship”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6 (3), 289-326.
• Phillips, Peter ve Pierre Perron (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions”, Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346.
• Rahman, Anisur (1968), “Foreign Capital and Domestic Savings: A Test of Haavelmo’s Hypothesis with Cross-Country Data”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 50 (1), 137-138.
• Tang, Chor F. ve Lean, Hooi H. (2009), “The Effects of Disaggregated Savings on Economic Growth in Malaysia: Generalised Variance Decomposition Analysis”, Asian Business and Economics Research Unit Discussion Paper, 09 (04), 1-14.
• Tapphavimol, Kornkanok (1986), “The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow on Domestic Saving in Thailand 19701984”, ETD Collection for AUC Robert W. Woodruff Library, 1830, 1-40.
• Toda, Hiro Y. ve Yamamoto, Taku (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66 (1), 225-250.