Göçmen Gönderilerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerine Etkisi: Seçilmiş BDT Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Year 2018, , 695 - 712, 28.12.2018

Doğan Uysal , Şerife Özşahin , Gülbahar Üçler

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.457473

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Çalışmak
amacıyla gittiği ülkede bir yıldan daha uzun süre kalan göçmenlerin anavatanlarındaki
ailelerine gönderdikleri para olarak tanımlanan göçmen havaleleri, gelişmekte
olan ülkelerin önemli sermaye kaynaklarından biridir. IMF Ödemeler Dengesi ve
Uluslararası Yatırım Pozisyonu Klavuzu’nda (BPM6) “çalışanlara tazminat ve
kişisel tasarruflar” olmak üzere iki ana bileşene ayrılan göçmen havalelerinin
hacmi, 2000’li yıllarla birlikte ciddi artış kaydetmiştir. Göçmen gönderileri;
doğrudan yabancı yatırım, dış borçlanma veya dış yardımlara kıyasla daha
istikrarlı bir yapıya sahip olmasından dolayı özellikle kronik dış açık sorunu
yaşayan ülkelerin bu açığı finansmanında güvenilir bir kaynak olarak kabul
edilmektedir. 2015 yılı Dünya Bankası verilerine göre, dünya genelindeki yaklaşık
600 milyar $ göçmen gönderisinin yaklaşık %75’i gelişmekte olan ülkelere doğru
akmaktadır. En fazla göçmen gönderisi alan ülkeler Hindistan, Çin, Filipinler
ve Meksika iken göçmen gönderilerinin GSYİH içindeki payı dikkate alındığında Kırgızistan,
Nepal, Tacikistan ve Moldova gibi küçük ve yoksul ülkeler ilk sıralara
yerleşmektedir.

Bu
çalışma göçmen gönderilerinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini ileri panel
veri analiz teknikleri ile incelemekte ve ilgili literatüre ampirik açıdan
katkı sağlamayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışma kapsamında Bağımsız Devletler
Topluluğu üyesi 6 ülkenin 2002-2016 dönemi verileri kullanılarak dış ticaret
açıklarının finansmanında göçmen havalelerinin etkisi araştırılmıştır. İncelenen
zaman dilimi ve ülke seçimi, verilerin kesintisiz olması ve erişilebilirliği
dikkate alınarak belirlenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda öncelikle panelde yer alan
ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı araştırılmış ve yapılan
analiz ile paneli oluşturan ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımsızlığı olduğu
tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulguya dayanarak değişkenlerin durağanlık analizi ve uzun
dönem katsayı tahmininde birinci nesil yöntemler kullanılmıştır. Pesaran, Shin
ve Smith (1999) PMG (Pooled Mean Group) tahmincisi ile ulaşılan uzun dönem
katsayılar göçmen gönderilerinin dış ticaret dengesini Azerbaycan’da pozitif, Moldova
ve Tacikistan’da negatif yönde etkileyen anlamlı bir değişken olduğunu
göstermiştir

Keywords

Göçmen gönderileri, Dış ticaret Dengesi

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