Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey

Year 2020, Volume: 30 Issue: Ek sayı (Additional issue), 973 - 988, 31.12.2020

Semih Kale , Selçuk Berber

https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.761275

Cited By: 1

Abstract

This paper aimed to develop forecasting models and to assess the trends in the production of freshwater crayfish in Turkey. Different trend analysis methods (Box-Jenkins method, Şen’s innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test) were compared, and different autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were generated to forecast the future trend. The results of the innovative trend analysis methodology and ARIMA models revealed that freshwater crayfish production has a decreasing trend during the study period, although there are some fluctuations. ARIMA models predicted that the production of freshwater crayfish would continue to decrease in the future period. The present paper is also the most temporally rich assessment of the crayfish production in Turkey encompassing 100+ years from 1909 to 2018. Several factors such as climate change, overexploitation, diseases, legal regulations, and fisheries management policies might affect the production amount. Therefore, appropriate policies for fisheries management and legal regulations should be planned and implemented to improve the production.

Keywords

Freshwater crayfish, Production, Forecast, Trend analysis

Thanks

The authors would like to thank all staff of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for the efforts in data collecting and making them available.

Türkiye’deki Kerevit (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) Üretimi İçin Trend Analizi ve Tahmin Modellerinin Karşılaştırılması

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’deki kerevit üretiminin eğilimlerini değerlendirmek ve geleceğe yönelik tahmin modelleri geliştirmektir. Farklı trend analizi yöntemleri (Mann-Kendall testi, Şen’in yenilikçi trend analizi, Box-Jenkins yöntemi) karşılaştırılmış ve gelecekteki eğilimlerin tahmin edilmesi için farklı otoregresif bütünleşik hareketli ortalama (ARIMA) modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Yenilikçi trend analizi metodolojisinin ve ARIMA modellerinin sonuçları çalışma periyodu boyunca dalgalanmalar olmasına rağmen kerevit üretiminin azalan bir eğilime sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. ARIMA modelleri kerevit üretiminin gelecek dönemlerde azalmaya devam edeceğini tahmin etmektedir. Ayrıca, bu çalışma Türkiye’deki kerevit üretiminin zamansal olarak 1909 ile 2018 yılları arasındaki 100 yıldan fazla süreyi kapsayan en geniş değerlendirmesini sunmaktadır. Aşırı avcılık, hastalıklar, iklim değişikliği, yasal düzenlemeler ve balıkçılık yönetimi politikaları gibi birçok faktör üretim miktarını etkileyebilmektedir. Dolayısıyla, üretimin geliştirilmesi için uygun balıkçılık yönetimi politikaları ile yasal düzenlemeler planlanmalı ve uygulanmalıdır.

Keywords

Kerevit, Üretim, Tahmin, Trend analizi

References

• Akhan, S., Bektas, Y., Berber, S., & Kalayci, G. (2014). Population structure and genetic analysis of narrow-clawed crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus) populations in Turkey. Genetica, 142(5), 381-395. doi:10.1007/s10709-014-9782-5
• Alifujiang, Y., Abuduwaili, J., Maihemuti, B., Emin, B., & Groll, M. (2020). Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan. Atmosphere, 11(4), 332. doi:10.3390/atmos11040332
• Arslan, G., Kale, S., & Sönmez, A. Y. (2020) Trend analysis and forecasting of streamflow of Gökırmak River (Turkey). Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies, 49(3), In press.
• Ay, M., Karaca, Ö., & Yıldız, A. (2018). Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 34(1), 78-86.
• Aydin, H., Harlıoğlu, M. M., & Bök, T. D. (2012). Harvest, export and economic status of freshwater crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Esch.1823) in Turkey. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(16), 2463-2468. doi:10.5897/AJAR12.768
• Balık, İ., Çubuk, H., & Uysal, R. (2003). Effect of bait on efficiency of fyke-nets for catching crayfish Astacus leptodactylus Esch. 1823. Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 3, 1-4.
• Balik, İ., Çubuk, H., Özkök, R., & Uysal, R. (2005). Some biological characteristics of crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Lake Eğirdir. Turkish Journal of Zoology, 29(4), 295-300.
• Balık, İ., Özkök, E., & Özkök, R. (2002). Catch per unit effort and size composition of crayfish, Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz 1823, in Lake İznik. Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences, 15(6), 884-889. doi:10.5713/ajas.2002.884
• Balık, S., Ustaoğlu, M. R., Sarı, H. M., & Berber, S. (2005). Determination of traits some growth and morphometric of crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) at Demirköprü (Manisa). Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 22(1-2), 83-89.
• Balık, S., Ustaoğlu, M. R., Sarı, H. M., & Berber, S. (2006). Some reproduction properties of crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Demirköprü Dam Lake. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 23(3-4), 245-249.
• Berber, S. (2020). Türkiye’de Kerevit Stoklarının Korunması ve Geliştirilmesi Önünde Engeller ve Çözüm Yolları. In A. Bolat (Ed.), Ziraat, Orman ve Su Ürünleri Alanında Akademik Çalışmalar - II (pp. 139-156). Ankara, Turkey: Gece Publishing.
• Berber, S., & Balık, S. (2006). Determination of traits some growth and morphometric of crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) at Manyas Lake (Balıkesir). Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 23(1-2), 83-91.
• Berber, S., Kale, S., & Türel, S. (2014). Ensuring the sustainability of crayfish stocks for fisheries management: Problems and solutions. Paper presented at the International Symposium on Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences: FABA 2014, Trabzon, Turkey. pp. 232.
• Berber, S., Mazlum, Y., Demirci, A., & Türel, S. (2012). Structure, growth, mortality and size at sexual maturity of various populations Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823 (Cructacea: Decopada) in Turkey. Marine Science and Technology Bullettin, 1(1), 21-27.
• Berber, S., Yildiz, H., Ateş, A.S., Bulut, M., & Mendeş, M. (2010). A study on the relationships between some morphological and reproductive traits of the Turkish crayfish, Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823 (Crustacea: Decapoda). Reviews in Fisheries Science, 18(1), 131-137. doi:10.1080/10641260903491003
• Bök, T., Aydın, H., & Ateş, C. (2013). A study on some morphological characteristics of Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz 1823) in seven different inland waters in Turkey. Journal of the Black Sea / Mediterranean Environment, 19(2), 190˗205.
• Bolat, Y. (2001). The Estimation of population size of freshwater crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus salimus Nordmann,1842) in Hoyran Part of Lake Eğirdir. (PhD), Süleyman Demirel University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey.
• Bolat, Y., & Kaya, M. A. (2016). Determination of growth and reproduction properties of freshwater crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus, Eschscholtz, 1823) in Eğirdir Lake-Turkey. Eğirdir Su Ürünleri Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(1), 11-24.
• Bolat, Y., Demirci, A., & Mazlum, Y. (2010). Size selectivity of traps (fyke-nets) of different mesh size on the narrow-clawed crayfish, Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) (Decapoda, Astacidae) in Eğirdir Lake, Turkey. Crustaceana, 83(11), 1349-1361. doi:10.1163/001121610X536969
• Cilbiz, M., Aydın, C. & Uzunmehmetoğlu, O. Y. (2020). Türkiye’nin kerevit Pontastacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) üretiminin ulusal ve küresel ölçekte değerlendirilmesi LIMNOFISH-Journal of Limnology and Freshwater Fisheries Research, 6(1), 59-74. doi:10.17216/LimnoFish.561180
• Deveciyan, K. (2011). Türkiye’de Balık ve Balıkçılık. İstanbul, Turkey: Aras Yayıncılık. 574p.
• Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016) Effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Kocabaş Stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 11(4), 1-11. doi:10.9734/JSRR/2016/28052
• Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016) Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(1), 7-11.
• Gedefaw, M., Yan, D., Wang, H., Qin, T. Girma, A., Abiyu, A., & Batsuren, D. (2018). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall variability in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. Atmosphere, 9(9), 326. doi:10.3390/atmos9090326
• Gephart, J. A., Deutsch, L., Pace, M. L., Troell, M., & Seekell, D. A. (2017). Shocks to fish production: Identification, trends, and consequences. Global Environmental Change, 42, 24-34. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.11.003
• Harlioğlu, A. G., & Harlioğlu, M. M. (2009). The status of freshwater crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz) Fisheries in Turkey. Reviews in Fisheries Science, 17(2), 187-189. doi:10.1080/10641260802645311
• Harlioǧlu, M. M. (2004). The present situation of freshwater crayfish, Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey. Aquaculture, 230(1-4), 181-187. doi:10.1016/S0044-8486(03)00429-0
• Harlioǧlu, M. M. (2008). The harvest of the freshwater crayfish Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz in Turkey: Harvest history, impact of crayfish plague, and present distribution of harvested populations. Aquaculture International, 16(4), 351-360. doi:10.1007/s10499-007-9145-7
• Harlıoğlu, M. M., & Harlıoğlu, A. G. (2004). The harvest of freshwater crayfish, Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 14(4), 415-419. doi:10.1007/s11160-005-0812-3
• Harlıoğlu, M. M., Farhadi, A., & Gür, S. (2018). Determination of sperm quality in decapod crustaceans. Aquaculture, 490, 185-193. doi: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2018.02.031
• Harlioğlu, M. M., Kutluyer, F., & Gür, S. (2012). An investigation on the sperm number and reproductive parameters of males in wild caught freshwater crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus, Eschscholtz). Animal Biology, 62(4), 409-418. doi:10.1163/157075612X638559
• Kale, S. (2017a). Climatic trends in the temperature of Çanakkale city, Turkey. Natural and Engineering Sciences, 2(3), 14-27. doi:10.28978/nesciences.348449
• Kale, S. (2017b). Analysis of climatic trends in evaporation for Çanakkale (Turkey). Middle East Journal of Sciences, 3(2), 69-82. doi:10.23884/mejs.2017.3.2.01
• Kale, S., & Sönmez, A. Y. (2018a). Trend analysis of mean monthly, seasonally and annual streamflow of Daday Stream in Kastamonu, Turkey. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 7(2), 60-67. doi:10.33714/masteb.418234
• Kale, S., & Sönmez, A. Y. (2018b). Trend analysis of streamflow of Akkaya Stream (Turkey). Paper presented at the 1st International Conference on Food, Agriculture and Animal Sciences, Antalya, Turkey. pp. 33-45.
• Kale, S., & Sönmez, A. Y. (2019a). Trend analysis for streamflow of Devrekani Stream (Turkey). Review of Hydrobiology, 12(1-2), 23-37.
• Kale, S., & Sönmez, A. Y. (2019b). Trend analysis for annual streamflow of Ilgaz Stream (Turkey). Paper presented at the 2nd International Congress on Engineering and Life Science, Kastamonu, Turkey. pp. 628-633.
• Kale, S., & Sönmez, A. Y. (2019c). Trend analysis for annual streamflow of Araç Stream (Turkey). Paper presented at the 2nd International Congress on Engineering and Life Science, Kastamonu, Turkey. pp. 746-753.
• Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016). Climate change impacts on streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(2), 1-6.
• Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016). Effect of climate change on annual streamflow of Bakırçay River. Adıyaman Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(2), 156-176.
• Kale, S., Hisar, O., Sönmez, A. Y., Mutlu, F., & Filho, W. L. (2018). An assessment of the effects of climate change on annual streamflow in rivers in Western Turkey. International Journal of Global Warming, 15(2), 190-211. doi:10.1504/IJGW.2018.092901
• Karimpour, M., Harlioğlu, M. M., & Aksu, Ö. (2011). Status of freshwater crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus) in Iran. Knowledge and Management of Aquatic Ecosystems, 401, 18. doi:10.1051/kmae/2011032
• Kişi, Ö., Guimaraes Santos, C. A., Marques da Silva, R. & Zounemat-Kermani, M. (2018). Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen’s innovative trend method. Geofizika, 35(1), 53-68. doi:10.15233/gfz.2018.35.3
• Oladimeji, Y. U. (2017). Trend in fish production parameters in Nigeria and its total estimated demand: Empirical evidence from fish production. Journal of Animal Production Research, 29(1), 410-418.
• Oladimeji, Y. U. (2018). Assessment of trend of artisanal fish production in Nigeria vis-a-vis implications on economic growth. Nigerian Journal of Fisheries and Aquaculture, 6(1), 37-46.
• R Core Team. (2020). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
• Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), 1379-1389. doi:10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
• Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
• Şen, Z. (2014). Trend identification simulation and application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811
• Şen, Z. (2015). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127, 939-947. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x
• Şen, Z., Şişman, E., & Dabanli, I. (2019). Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and applications. Journal of Hydrology, 575, 202-210. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.028
• Sönmez, A. Y., & Kale, S. (2020) Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey). Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(2), 420-433. doi:10.2166/wcc.2018.060
• Srivastava, S. K. (2004). Recent Trends in Production and Export of Fish in India and Status of Uttaranchal. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics; 59(3), 509.
• TurkStat. (2020). Fishery Statistics. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=97&locale=tr (Access date: 30.04.2020)
• Türel, S., Berber, S., & Kale, S. (2014). The status and harvest of freshwater crayfish Astacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz 1823 in Turkey. Paper presented at the 5th International Symposium on Sustainable Development, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. pp. 137.
• Yüksel, F., Demirol, F., & Gündüz, F. (2013). Leslie population estimation for Turkish crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus Esch., 1823) in the Keban Dam Lake, Turkey. Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 13(5), 835-839. doi:10.4194/1303-2712-v13_5_07