Regional Drought Analysis with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI): Gediz Basin, Turkey

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 4, 1032 - 1049, 06.11.2023

Mustafa Öney Alper Anlı

https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1030782

Cited By: 1

Öz

In this study, regional drought analysis was performed with the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and L-moment techniques by using the monthly average temperature and monthly total rainfall amounts collected from five sites in the Gediz basin in Turkey. Using the monthly average temperatures, the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) amounts obtained by the Thornthwaite method and the monthly total rainfall amounts were divided into 5 different reference periods as 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Expressing the difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration amounts, the water balance (Di) series showed that almost all of the 9 and 12-month periods suffered from water deficiency and the 3-month period was water excessive. After determining the distributions that provide the best adaptation to the water balance series, according to the SPEI values obtained, near-normal conditions prevailed in all sites, while moderate and severe arid and humid conditions sometimes occurred, while extremely humid and arid conditions were rarely seen. In the regional drought analysis using L-moment techniques with the SPEI values obtained, a region of five sites were accepted and the discordancy and heterogeneity measures showed that the basin was acceptable homogeneous. SPEI values are generally the best fit generalized extreme values (GEV) for 1 and 3-month periods, generalized normal (GNO) for 6-month period, generalized logistics (GLO) for 9-month period, Pearson type 3 (PE3) distributions for 12-month period. According to the regional SPEI values for reference periods, it has been found near-normal in 1.11, 1.25 and 2 years, moderately humid in 1.04 years, very humid conditions for 1.01 and 1.02 years, moderately dry in 4 and 5 years, severe arid in 10 years, and extremely dry conditions in 20 and longer periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Potential evapotranspiration, Water balance, SPEI, Index-Flood, Regional homogeneity, Drought duration, Drought frequency

Kaynakça

• Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I. A. 1965. Handbook of Mathematical Functions, with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables. Dover Publications, 1046 p.
• Anli, A. S. 2015. Regional and point precipitation estimation for 1975-2010 period over semi-arid Central Anatolia Region of Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin. 24 (2a): 632-643.
• Anli, A. S. 2017. Temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration and regional drought estimation using SPEI method for semi-arid Konya closed basin in Turkey. European Water 59: 231-238.
• Bae, S., Lee, S., Yoo, S. and Kim, T. 2018. Analysis of Drought Intensity and Trends Using the Modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010. Water Open Access Journal, 10, 327. 1-17.
• Begueria, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F. and Latorre, B. 2014. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. Int. J. Climatol. 34: 3001–3023.
• Chen, H. and Sun, J. 2015. Changes in Drought Characteristics over China Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Climate, 28, 5430-5447. Chen, T., Xia, G., Liu, T., Chen, W. and Chi, D. 2016. Assessment of Drought Impact on Main Cereal Crops Using a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Liaoning Province, China. Sustainability-Open Access Journal. Sustainability, 8, 1069; doi:10.3390/su8101069. 1 – 16.
• Çetinkaya, C. P. Fistikoglu, O., Fedra, K., and Harmancioglu, N. B. 2008. Optimization methods applied for sustainable management of water-scarce basins. Journal of hydroinformatics; 10 (1): 69-95.
• Dalrymple, T. 1960. Flood frequency analyses. Water Supply Paper 1543-A, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
• Greenwood, J. A., Landwehr, J. M., Matalas, N. C. and Wallis, J. R. 1979. Probability weighted moments: Definition and relation to parameters of several distributions expressable in inverse form. Water Resources Research, 15, 1049-54.
• Hiessl, H. 1987. Risk aspect in the determination of optimal cropping patterns. Engineering reliability and risk in water resources; 124: 485-498.
• Hosking, J.R.M. 1994. The four-parameter kappa distribution. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 38, 251-8.
• Hosking, J.R.M. 2005. FORTRAN routines for use with the method of L-moments, Version 3.04. Research Report RC 20525, IBM Research Division, T.C. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, N.Y.
• Hosking, J.R.M. and Wallis, J.R. 1993. Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 29, 271-81.
• Hosking, J.R.M., and Wallis, J.R. 1997. Regional frequency analysis: An approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 224p.
• Ivits, E., Horion, S., Fensholt, R. and Cherlet, M. 2014. Global Ecosystem Response Types Derived from the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and FPAR3g Series. Remote Sens. 6:4266-4288; doi:10.3390/rs6054266 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing
• Kumar, R., Musuuza, J. L., Van Loon, A. F., Teuling, A. J., Barthel, R., Ten Broek, J., Mai, J., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S. 2016. Multiscale Evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index as a Groundwater Drought Indicator. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, 2016. doi:10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1117/2016/
• Li, X., He, B., Quan, X., Liao, Z. and Bai X. 2015. Use of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to Characterize the Drying Trend in Southwest China from 1982–2012. Remote Sens., 7:10917-10937; doi:10.3390/rs70810917.
• Liu, X., Wang, S., Zhou, Y., Wang, F., Li, W., and Liu, W. 2015. Regionalization and Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in China Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (1961–2013). Hindawi Publishing Corporation, Advances in Meteorology, Volume 2015, Article ID 950262, 18 pages, http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/950262
• Ma, Y., Liu, Y., Song, H., Sun, Y.,Lei, Y. and Wang, Y. 2015. A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Reconstruction in the Taihe Mountains Using Tree-Ring Widths for the Last 283 Years. PLoS ONE10 (7):e0133605.doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0133605, 1-15.
• Meixiu, Yu., Qiongfang, Li., Hayes, M. J., Svobodab, M. D. and Heime, R. R. 2014. Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951–2010?. Int. J. Climatol. 34: 545–558.
• Meza, F. C. 2013. Recent trends and ENSO influence on droughts in Northern Chile: An application of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Weather and Climate Extremes 1, 51-58.
• Miah, Md G., Abdullah, H. M. and Jeong, C. 2017. Exploring Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for Drought Assessment in Bangladesh. Springer International Publishing, Environ Monit Assess, 189:547. 1–16.
• Potop, V. and Možn, M. 2011. The Applicatıon A New Drought Index-Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in The Czech Republic. Mikroklima A Mezoklima Krajinných Struktur A Antropogenních Prostředí. Skalní Mlýn, 2. 4.2. 2011, ISBN 978-80-86690-87-2.
• Redmond, K. T. 2000. Integrated climate monitoring for drought detection, in Drought: A Global Assessment, Hazards Disasters Ser., vol. I, edited by D. A. Wilhite, pp. 145 – 158, Routledge, New York.
• Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Xu, C. and Van Lanen, H. A. J. 2014. Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI): Sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration model and parameters. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, October 2014. 367-374.
• Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Gudmundsson, L., Van Loon, A.F. and Stahl, K. 2015. Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI). Int. J. Climatol. 35, 4027–4040.
• Somorowska, U. 2016. Changes in Drought Conditions in Poland over the Past 60 Years Evaluated by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Acta Geophysica Vol. 64, No. 6, Dec. 2016, 2530-2549.
• Thornthwaite, C. W. 1948. An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate. Geographical Review, 38:1, 55-94.
• Thornthwaite, C. W. and Mather, J. R. 1955. The Water Balance. Laboratory of Climatology Publ. 8. Centerton, NJ.
• Thornthwaite, C. W. and Mather, J. R. 1957. Instructions and Tables for Computing Potential Evapotranspiration and the Water Balance. Drexel Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Climatology, Publications in Climatology 10(3), 311 pp.
• Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, and J. I. López-Moreno, 2010a. A Multiscalar Drought İndex Sensitive To Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration İndex. J. Climate, 23, 1696-1718.
• Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, and J. I. López-Moreno, Angulo, M. and Kenawy, A. El. 2010b. A New Global 0.58 Gridded Dataset (1901–2006) of a Multiscalar Drought Index: Comparison with Current Drought Index Datasets Based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. J. of Hydrometeorology, 11, 1033-1043.
• Vogel, R. M., Thomas, W. O. and McMahon, T. A. 1993. Flood-flow frequency model selection in Southwestern United States. Journal of Water Resources and Management, 119 (3), 353-66. Wallis, J.R. and Wood, E.F. 1985. Relative accuracy of log Pearson III procedures. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 111, 1043-56.
• Wang, R., Peng, W., Liu, W., Wu, W., Chen, X. and Zhang, S. 2018. Responses of Water Level in China’s Largest Freshwater Lake to the Meteorological Drought Index (SPEI) in the Past Five Decades. Journal of Water. 2018, 10, 137; 1-20. doi:10.3390/w10020137.
• Wilhite, D. A. 2000. Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions, (Chapter 1). In: D.A. Wilhite (ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment (Volumes 1 and 2), Routledge Publishers, London.
• Yang, M., Yan, D., Yu, Y. and Yang, Z. 2015. SPEI-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010. Hindawi Publishing Corporation Advances in Meteorology Volume 2016, Article ID 7658015, 10 pages. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7658015.