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MEASURING FINANCIAL RISKS WITH EXTREME VALUE THEORY

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2, 119 - 134, 22.11.2013

Öz

The extreme values in financial markets have been investigated in this study by using two different methods of extreme value theory: block maxima method and peaks over threshold method. Value at Risk, expected shortfall and return level are the risk tools that are taken benefit for risk analysis. Risks of an investor that has a position on IMKB-100 return index have been analyzed by measuring risk values for different percentages and performances of the methods have been compared

 

 

Kaynakça

  • Bensalah, Y., (2000) “Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance:a Review”, Research. And Risk Management Section Financial Markets Department, Bank of Canada.
  • Beirlant, J., Teugels, J., Vynckier, P., (1996) “Practical Analysis of Extreme Values”, Leuven University Press, Leuven.
  • Bozkuş, S., (2005) “Risk Ölçümünde Alternatif Yaklaşımlar: Riske Maruz Değer ve Beklenen Kayıp Uygulamaları”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi, Cilt: 20, Sayı:2, 2005, 27-45.
  • Caserta, S., De Vries, C. G. (2003) “Extreme Value Theory and Statistics for Heavy Tail Data”, Euronext and Tinbergen Institue. Christoffersen, P.F, (1998), “Evaluating Internal Forecasts”, International Economic Review, 39, 841-862.
  • Costello, A., Asem, E., Gardner, E., (2008), “Comparison of Historically Simulated VaR: Evidence from Oil Prices”. Energy economics, 30, 2154-1266.
  • Çelik N., Kaya M.F., (2010),“Uç Değerler Yöntemi ile Riske Maruz Değer’in Tahmini ve İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt 1, sayı 1, 19-32.
  • Çifter A., Özün A.,Yılmazer S, (2007a) “Beklenen Kuyruk Kaybı ve Genelleştirilmiş Pareto Dağılımı ile Riske Mauz Değer Öngörüsü: Faiz Oranları Üzerine Bir Uygulama” Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 60, 3-16.
  • Çifter A., Özün A., Yılmazer S, (2007b) “Geriye Dönük Testlerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi: Döviz Kuru Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 62, 25-43.
  • Demireli, E.,Taner, B.(2009) ”Risk Yönteminde Riske Maruz Değer Yöntemleri ve Bir Uygulama”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakülte Dergisi, C.14, S.3, 127-148.
  • Embrechts, P., Kluppelberg, C. & Mikosch,T. (1997) “Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance”, Springer, Berlin.
  • Embrechts, P., (1999), “Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Management Tool.”, North American Actuarial Journal, vol 3, no:2.
  • Fisher, R.A., Tippett, L.H.C. (1928). "Limiting Forms of The Frequency Distribution of The Largest and Smallest Member of Sample." Proc. Cambridge Philosophical Society 24:180-190.
  • Genç, R.,Selçuk F., (2004) “Extreme Value Theory and Value-at-Risk: Relative Performance in Emerging Markets", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol: 20, 287– 303 .
  • Goncu A., Akgul A.K., Imamoğlu O., Tiryakioğlu M., (2012) “An analysis of the Extreme Returns Distribution: The Case of the Istanbul Stock Exchange”,Applied Financial Economics, vol 22, 723-732.
  • Goorbergh., R.W.J. and Vlaar, EJ.G. (1999) "Value at Risk Analysis of stock returns: Historical simulation, variance technique or tail index estimation?", research memorandum WO&E, 579
  • Gilli, M., Kellezi, E., (2000), “Extreme Value Theory for Tail-Related Risk Measures” International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering Fame Research Paper Series
  • Gilli, M , Këllezi E, (2006), “An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk”, Computational Economics, vol 27, 1–23.
  • Gumbel, E. J., (1941), “The return period of flood flows”: Annals of Mathematical Statistics v. 12, no. 2, 163-190. Jorion, P., (2001), “Value at Risk”, McGrawHill.
  • Kupiec, P.H., (1995), “Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurement Models”, Journal of Derivatives,Winter, 73-84
  • Longin, F.M., (2000), “From Value at Risk to Stress Testing: The Extreme Value Approach”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 24, 1097-1130.
  • McNeil A., (1997) “Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory”, ASTIN Bulletin,Vol 27 , 117–137
  • McNeil A. J, (1999) “Extreme Value Theory for Risk Managers, in Internal Modelling and CAD II”, 93–113.
  • Smith, R.L., (2003) “Statistics of Extremes with Application in Environment, Insurance and Finance”, CRC Press/Chapman and Hall.
  • Weibull W., (1939), “A Statistical Theory of The Strength of Material”. Proc. Royal Swedish Institute Engineering Research 151:1.
  • Tsay, R.S., (2010), “Analysis of Financial Time Series”, Third Edition, John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey, 676.

FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2, 119 - 134, 22.11.2013

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Bensalah, Y., (2000) “Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance:a Review”, Research. And Risk Management Section Financial Markets Department, Bank of Canada.
  • Beirlant, J., Teugels, J., Vynckier, P., (1996) “Practical Analysis of Extreme Values”, Leuven University Press, Leuven.
  • Bozkuş, S., (2005) “Risk Ölçümünde Alternatif Yaklaşımlar: Riske Maruz Değer ve Beklenen Kayıp Uygulamaları”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi, Cilt: 20, Sayı:2, 2005, 27-45.
  • Caserta, S., De Vries, C. G. (2003) “Extreme Value Theory and Statistics for Heavy Tail Data”, Euronext and Tinbergen Institue. Christoffersen, P.F, (1998), “Evaluating Internal Forecasts”, International Economic Review, 39, 841-862.
  • Costello, A., Asem, E., Gardner, E., (2008), “Comparison of Historically Simulated VaR: Evidence from Oil Prices”. Energy economics, 30, 2154-1266.
  • Çelik N., Kaya M.F., (2010),“Uç Değerler Yöntemi ile Riske Maruz Değer’in Tahmini ve İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt 1, sayı 1, 19-32.
  • Çifter A., Özün A.,Yılmazer S, (2007a) “Beklenen Kuyruk Kaybı ve Genelleştirilmiş Pareto Dağılımı ile Riske Mauz Değer Öngörüsü: Faiz Oranları Üzerine Bir Uygulama” Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 60, 3-16.
  • Çifter A., Özün A., Yılmazer S, (2007b) “Geriye Dönük Testlerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi: Döviz Kuru Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 62, 25-43.
  • Demireli, E.,Taner, B.(2009) ”Risk Yönteminde Riske Maruz Değer Yöntemleri ve Bir Uygulama”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakülte Dergisi, C.14, S.3, 127-148.
  • Embrechts, P., Kluppelberg, C. & Mikosch,T. (1997) “Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance”, Springer, Berlin.
  • Embrechts, P., (1999), “Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Management Tool.”, North American Actuarial Journal, vol 3, no:2.
  • Fisher, R.A., Tippett, L.H.C. (1928). "Limiting Forms of The Frequency Distribution of The Largest and Smallest Member of Sample." Proc. Cambridge Philosophical Society 24:180-190.
  • Genç, R.,Selçuk F., (2004) “Extreme Value Theory and Value-at-Risk: Relative Performance in Emerging Markets", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol: 20, 287– 303 .
  • Goncu A., Akgul A.K., Imamoğlu O., Tiryakioğlu M., (2012) “An analysis of the Extreme Returns Distribution: The Case of the Istanbul Stock Exchange”,Applied Financial Economics, vol 22, 723-732.
  • Goorbergh., R.W.J. and Vlaar, EJ.G. (1999) "Value at Risk Analysis of stock returns: Historical simulation, variance technique or tail index estimation?", research memorandum WO&E, 579
  • Gilli, M., Kellezi, E., (2000), “Extreme Value Theory for Tail-Related Risk Measures” International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering Fame Research Paper Series
  • Gilli, M , Këllezi E, (2006), “An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk”, Computational Economics, vol 27, 1–23.
  • Gumbel, E. J., (1941), “The return period of flood flows”: Annals of Mathematical Statistics v. 12, no. 2, 163-190. Jorion, P., (2001), “Value at Risk”, McGrawHill.
  • Kupiec, P.H., (1995), “Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurement Models”, Journal of Derivatives,Winter, 73-84
  • Longin, F.M., (2000), “From Value at Risk to Stress Testing: The Extreme Value Approach”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 24, 1097-1130.
  • McNeil A., (1997) “Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory”, ASTIN Bulletin,Vol 27 , 117–137
  • McNeil A. J, (1999) “Extreme Value Theory for Risk Managers, in Internal Modelling and CAD II”, 93–113.
  • Smith, R.L., (2003) “Statistics of Extremes with Application in Environment, Insurance and Finance”, CRC Press/Chapman and Hall.
  • Weibull W., (1939), “A Statistical Theory of The Strength of Material”. Proc. Royal Swedish Institute Engineering Research 151:1.
  • Tsay, R.S., (2010), “Analysis of Financial Time Series”, Third Edition, John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey, 676.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ayse Arık

Basak Bulut

Meral Sucu

Yayımlanma Tarihi 22 Kasım 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Arık, A., Bulut, B., & Sucu, M. (2013). FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ. Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, 14(2), 119-134.
AMA Arık A, Bulut B, Sucu M. FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ. AUBTD-A. Kasım 2013;14(2):119-134.
Chicago Arık, Ayse, Basak Bulut, ve Meral Sucu. “FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ”. Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 14, sy. 2 (Kasım 2013): 119-34.
EndNote Arık A, Bulut B, Sucu M (01 Kasım 2013) FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ. Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 14 2 119–134.
IEEE A. Arık, B. Bulut, ve M. Sucu, “FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ”, AUBTD-A, c. 14, sy. 2, ss. 119–134, 2013.
ISNAD Arık, Ayse vd. “FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ”. Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 14/2 (Kasım 2013), 119-134.
JAMA Arık A, Bulut B, Sucu M. FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ. AUBTD-A. 2013;14:119–134.
MLA Arık, Ayse vd. “FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ”. Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, c. 14, sy. 2, 2013, ss. 119-34.
Vancouver Arık A, Bulut B, Sucu M. FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ. AUBTD-A. 2013;14(2):119-34.