Üst Rekor Değerleri Kullanılarak Porsuk Barajındaki Su Seviyesinin Tahmini

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 39 - 57, 31.12.2008

Arzu Altın , Günseli Kurt

Öz

Calısmanın temel amacı ust rekor değerleri yardımıyla belirli cevresel konuların nasıl analiz edileceğini gostermektir. Bu calısmada, Eskisehir iline su sağlayan Porsuk Barajı icin 1974 Ocak - 2005 Aralık donemine ait aylara iliskin ortalama gunluk su miktarıi verileri ust rekor değerleri yardımıyla analiz edilmistir. Devlet Su Đsleri (DSI) 3. Bolge Mudurluğu’nden elde edilen veriler kullanıarak, baraja gelen ortalama gunluk su miktarlarıı ust rekor değrleri uc dağıı (Normal, Logistic, Rayleigh) yardııla tahmin edilmistir. Analiz sonucunda Mart, Nisan, Mayı ve Haziran aylarıda barajdaki su seviyesinin oldukca fazla olduğ belirlenmistir. Bu nedenle bu aylarda baraja tahmin edilen miktarlarda su gelmesi halinde barajda kontrolsuz su bıakımasıgibi onemli sorunlar olabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Önkestirim, Porsuk Barajı, Üst Rekor Değerleri

Estimation Of Water Level In Porsuk Dam By Using Upper Record Values

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to show how upper record statistics help in analyzing

certain environmental issues. In this study, we analyzed the average daily water amount data from the

monthly data of the Porsuk dam which supplies water for Eskisehir between the time period of January

1974 and December 2005 by using upper record values. By using this data taken from State Hydraulic

Works (SHW) 3rd Regional Directorate, the upper record values of daily average amounts of coming

water to the dam are estimated via three probability distributions: Normal, Logistic and Rayleigh. As a

result, it has been realized that the water amount in the dam is very much in March, April, May and June.

For this reason, if the estimated amount of water comes to the dam, there could be considerable

problems, such as uncontrolled water set free for the dam.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Prediction, Porsuk Dam, Upper Record Values.

Kaynakça

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