Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2018,
Cilt: 26 Sayı: 37, 185 - 200, 31.07.2018
Öz
Bu çalışmanın genel amacı belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye için incelemektir. Özel amacımız ise Caballero (1991)’nun belirsizlik ile yatırım arasındaki negatif ilişkinin eksik rekabet koşullarında daha belirgin olacağı iddiasını test etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, belirsizlik-yatırım ilişkisinde piyasa yapısının etkisini inceleyebilmek için 1992-2001 dönemine ait Türk imalat sanayiinden elde edilen panel veriler kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlarımız belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerinde azaltıcı etkisinin olduğunu ve bu azaltıcı etkinin eksik rakebet koşulları altında daha güçlü olduğunu göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Belirsizlik Yatırım Piyasa Yapısı Türk İmalat Sanayii Dinamik Panel Veri Yöntemi
Kaynakça
- Abel, B. A. (1983), Optimal Investment under Uncertainty, American Economic Review, vol: 73, pp. 228–233. Abel, B. A., and Eberly, C. J. (1994), A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty, American Economic Review, vol: 84, pp.1369-1384. Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991), Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, vol: 58 (2), pp. 277-297. Atella, V., Enrico, A. G. and Luigi. B. P. (2003), Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol: 25, pp. 811-824. Bailey, E. E. (1981), Contestability and the Design of Regulatory and Antitrust Policy, American Economic Review, vol: 71(2), pp. 178-183. Bell, K. G., and Campa, M. J. (1997), Irreversible Investments and Volatile Markets: A Study of the Chemical Processing Industry, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 79, pp.79-87. Bernanke, S. B. (1983), Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol: 98, pp. 85–106. Böhm, H., Funke, M.. and Siegfried, A. N. (2000), Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment-Microeconometric Evidence from Germany, Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Paper Series, No: 5/99. Hamburg University. Bulan, T. L. (2005), Real Options, Irreversible Investment and Firm Uncertainty: New Evidence from US Firms, Review of Financial Economics, vol: 14, pp. 255-279. Caballero, J. R. (1991), On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship, American Economic Review, vol: 81, pp. 279–288. Calcagnini, G. and Saltari, E. (2000), Real and Financial Uncertainty and Investment Decisions, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol: 22, pp. 491-514. Carruth, A., Dickerson, A. and Henley, A. (2000), What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?, Journal of Economic Surveys, vol: 14, pp. 119-153. Conway, J. P. (1991), Implications of Relative Price Uncertainty for Private Investment in Turkey, Mimeo, University of North Carolina. Dixit, K. A. and Pindyck. S. R. (1994) Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press. Princeton. Driver, C., Imai, S. K., Temple, P. and Urga, G. (2004), The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Homogenous vs. Heterogeneous Estimators, Empirical Economics, vol: 29, pp. 115–128. Erdal, B. (2001), Investment Decision Under Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Central Bank Review, vol: 1, pp. 25-47. Ghosal, V. and Loungani, P. (1996), Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries, Journal of Industrial Economics, vol: 44, pp. 217-228. Ghosal, V. and Loungani, P. (2000), The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 82, pp. 338-349. Guiso, L. and Parigi, G. (1999), Investment and Demand Uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol: 114, pp. 185-227. Guncavdi, O. and Mckay. A. (2003), Macroeconomic adjustment and private manufacturing investment in Turkey: a Time-Series Analysis, Applied Economics, vol: 35, pp. 1901-1909. Hartman, R. (1972), The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment, Journal of Economic Theory, vol: 5, pp. 258–266. Henley, A., Carruth, A., and Dickerson, A. (2003), Industry-Wide versus Firm-Specific Uncertainty and Investment: British Company Panel Data Evidence, Economics Letters, vol: 78, pp. 87-92. Joaquin, D., and Khanna, N. (2001), Investment Timing Decision Under Threat of Potential Competition, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol: 41, pp. 1-18. Kessides, N. I. (1990), Market Concentration, Contestability, and Sunk Costs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 72 (4), pp. 614-622. Lambrecht, B. and Perraudin, W. (2003), Real Options and preemption under Incomplete Information, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol: 27, pp. 619-643. Lensink, R., and Sterken, E. (2000), Capital Market Imperfections, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment in the Czech Republic, Economics of Planning, vol: 33, pp. 53–70. Lensink, R., Paul, van Steen, and Sterken, E. (2000), Is Size Important for the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship? An Empirical Analysis for Dutch Firms, SOM research report - theme E, Groningen, University of Groningen. Lensink, R., Bo, H. and Sterken, E. (2001), Investment, Capital Market Imperfections and Uncertainty: Theory and Empirical Results, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. Lensink, R., Paul, van Steen and Sterken, E. (2005). Uncertainty and Growth of the Firm, Small Business Economics, vol: 24, pp. 381-391. Maioli, S. (2005), The Impact of Market Structure and Irreversibility on Investment under Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis, Research Paper 2005/45, University of Nottingham. McDonald, R. and Siegel, D. (1986), The value of waiting to invest, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol: 101, pp. 707–727. Nickell, J. S. (1978), The Investment Decision of Firms, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Ninh, L, K. (2003), Investment of Rice Mills in Vietnam The Role of Financial Market Imperfections and Uncertainty, Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, PhD Thesis. Netherlands. Ozatay, F. (1997), Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Inflation Stabilization: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol: 19(6), pp. 661-681. Pindyck, S. R. (1988), Irreversible investment, capacity choice and the value of the firm, American Economic Review, vol: 78(5), pp. 969–985. Price, S. (1995), Aggregate Uncertainty, Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Investment, Applied Economics, vol: 27, pp. 147-154. ______ (1996), Aggregate Uncertainty, Investment and Asymmetric Adjustment in the UK Manufacturing Sector, Applied Economics, vol: 28, pp. 1369-1379. Serven, L. (1998), Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries, Policy Research Working Paper, 2035, The World Bank, Washington D.C. ______ (2003), Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Ldcs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 85(1), pp. 212–218. Sile, A. E. (2003), The Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment, Phd Thesis, Georgetown University, USA. SPO (2010), Economic and Social Indicators, State Planning Organization, http://www.dpt.gov.tr/DPT.portal. (accesed: March 23, 2010) Taymaz, E., Voyvoda E. and Kilicarslan, Y. (2008), Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinde Yapisal Dönüşüm ve Teknolojik Değişme Dinamikleri, ERC Working Papers, Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, 08/04. Temple, P., Urga, G. and Driver, C. (2001), The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol: 48, pp. 361-382. TurkStat (2010), Annual Manufacturing Industry Statistics, State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Ankara. Uygur, E. (2000), Erratic Growth And Private Investment Behaviour in Turkey, Country Economic Memorandum, Structural Reforms For Sustainable Growth, Background Papers, The World Bank. Zeira J. (1990), Cost Uncertainty and the Rate of Investment, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol: 14, pp. 53-63.
The Effects of Market Structure on Uncertainty-Investment Relationship: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry
Öz
The broad aim of this study is to examine the impact of uncertainty on investment in Turkey. Our particular aim is to test Caballero’s (1991) theoretical claim that the negative relationship between investment and uncertainty is more pronounced in imperfectly competitive industries. With that aim in mind a panel of Turkish manufacturing industries for the years 1992-2001 is used to examine the effect of market structure on the investment-uncertainty relationship. Our estimation results show that uncertainty has a reductive effect on investment and that that effect becomes significantly stronger under imperfect competition conditions.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Uncertainty Investment Market Structure Turkish Manufacturing Industry Dynamic Panel Data Methods
Kaynakça
- Abel, B. A. (1983), Optimal Investment under Uncertainty, American Economic Review, vol: 73, pp. 228–233. Abel, B. A., and Eberly, C. J. (1994), A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty, American Economic Review, vol: 84, pp.1369-1384. Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991), Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, vol: 58 (2), pp. 277-297. Atella, V., Enrico, A. G. and Luigi. B. P. (2003), Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol: 25, pp. 811-824. Bailey, E. E. (1981), Contestability and the Design of Regulatory and Antitrust Policy, American Economic Review, vol: 71(2), pp. 178-183. Bell, K. G., and Campa, M. J. (1997), Irreversible Investments and Volatile Markets: A Study of the Chemical Processing Industry, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 79, pp.79-87. Bernanke, S. B. (1983), Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol: 98, pp. 85–106. Böhm, H., Funke, M.. and Siegfried, A. N. (2000), Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment-Microeconometric Evidence from Germany, Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Paper Series, No: 5/99. Hamburg University. Bulan, T. L. (2005), Real Options, Irreversible Investment and Firm Uncertainty: New Evidence from US Firms, Review of Financial Economics, vol: 14, pp. 255-279. Caballero, J. R. (1991), On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship, American Economic Review, vol: 81, pp. 279–288. Calcagnini, G. and Saltari, E. (2000), Real and Financial Uncertainty and Investment Decisions, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol: 22, pp. 491-514. Carruth, A., Dickerson, A. and Henley, A. (2000), What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?, Journal of Economic Surveys, vol: 14, pp. 119-153. Conway, J. P. (1991), Implications of Relative Price Uncertainty for Private Investment in Turkey, Mimeo, University of North Carolina. Dixit, K. A. and Pindyck. S. R. (1994) Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press. Princeton. Driver, C., Imai, S. K., Temple, P. and Urga, G. (2004), The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Homogenous vs. Heterogeneous Estimators, Empirical Economics, vol: 29, pp. 115–128. Erdal, B. (2001), Investment Decision Under Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Central Bank Review, vol: 1, pp. 25-47. Ghosal, V. and Loungani, P. (1996), Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries, Journal of Industrial Economics, vol: 44, pp. 217-228. Ghosal, V. and Loungani, P. (2000), The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 82, pp. 338-349. Guiso, L. and Parigi, G. (1999), Investment and Demand Uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol: 114, pp. 185-227. Guncavdi, O. and Mckay. A. (2003), Macroeconomic adjustment and private manufacturing investment in Turkey: a Time-Series Analysis, Applied Economics, vol: 35, pp. 1901-1909. Hartman, R. (1972), The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment, Journal of Economic Theory, vol: 5, pp. 258–266. Henley, A., Carruth, A., and Dickerson, A. (2003), Industry-Wide versus Firm-Specific Uncertainty and Investment: British Company Panel Data Evidence, Economics Letters, vol: 78, pp. 87-92. Joaquin, D., and Khanna, N. (2001), Investment Timing Decision Under Threat of Potential Competition, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol: 41, pp. 1-18. Kessides, N. I. (1990), Market Concentration, Contestability, and Sunk Costs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 72 (4), pp. 614-622. Lambrecht, B. and Perraudin, W. (2003), Real Options and preemption under Incomplete Information, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol: 27, pp. 619-643. Lensink, R., and Sterken, E. (2000), Capital Market Imperfections, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment in the Czech Republic, Economics of Planning, vol: 33, pp. 53–70. Lensink, R., Paul, van Steen, and Sterken, E. (2000), Is Size Important for the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship? An Empirical Analysis for Dutch Firms, SOM research report - theme E, Groningen, University of Groningen. Lensink, R., Bo, H. and Sterken, E. (2001), Investment, Capital Market Imperfections and Uncertainty: Theory and Empirical Results, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. Lensink, R., Paul, van Steen and Sterken, E. (2005). Uncertainty and Growth of the Firm, Small Business Economics, vol: 24, pp. 381-391. Maioli, S. (2005), The Impact of Market Structure and Irreversibility on Investment under Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis, Research Paper 2005/45, University of Nottingham. McDonald, R. and Siegel, D. (1986), The value of waiting to invest, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol: 101, pp. 707–727. Nickell, J. S. (1978), The Investment Decision of Firms, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Ninh, L, K. (2003), Investment of Rice Mills in Vietnam The Role of Financial Market Imperfections and Uncertainty, Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, PhD Thesis. Netherlands. Ozatay, F. (1997), Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Inflation Stabilization: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol: 19(6), pp. 661-681. Pindyck, S. R. (1988), Irreversible investment, capacity choice and the value of the firm, American Economic Review, vol: 78(5), pp. 969–985. Price, S. (1995), Aggregate Uncertainty, Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Investment, Applied Economics, vol: 27, pp. 147-154. ______ (1996), Aggregate Uncertainty, Investment and Asymmetric Adjustment in the UK Manufacturing Sector, Applied Economics, vol: 28, pp. 1369-1379. Serven, L. (1998), Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries, Policy Research Working Paper, 2035, The World Bank, Washington D.C. ______ (2003), Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Ldcs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol: 85(1), pp. 212–218. Sile, A. E. (2003), The Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment, Phd Thesis, Georgetown University, USA. SPO (2010), Economic and Social Indicators, State Planning Organization, http://www.dpt.gov.tr/DPT.portal. (accesed: March 23, 2010) Taymaz, E., Voyvoda E. and Kilicarslan, Y. (2008), Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinde Yapisal Dönüşüm ve Teknolojik Değişme Dinamikleri, ERC Working Papers, Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, 08/04. Temple, P., Urga, G. and Driver, C. (2001), The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol: 48, pp. 361-382. TurkStat (2010), Annual Manufacturing Industry Statistics, State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey Ankara. Uygur, E. (2000), Erratic Growth And Private Investment Behaviour in Turkey, Country Economic Memorandum, Structural Reforms For Sustainable Growth, Background Papers, The World Bank. Zeira J. (1990), Cost Uncertainty and the Rate of Investment, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol: 14, pp. 53-63.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Temmuz 2018 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 11 Aralık 2017 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2018 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 37 |