Analyzing Internal Migration to Antalya and Muğla through Gravity Modelling

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 37, 117 - 126, 31.07.2018

Ali Tarık Akarca Aysıt Tansel

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06

Cited By: 2

Öz

Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey recently emerged as new magnets for internal migration. In an earlier study, we had pointed out that the dynamics underlying migration to these two provinces differs in many respects from that fueling the population movements to traditional magnets. In this paper, we complement our previous findings by showing how in some other key respects, migration to Antalya and Muğla is similar to migration to traditional destinations. We accomplish this by estimating separate gravity models for the two provinces in question, using both OLS and robust regression methods. We find that migration to Antalya and Muğla is affected by distance from the origin adversely, and by unemployment differential between the origin and destination, past migration from the origin, population sizes at the origin and destination, and natural disasters at the origin, favorably.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Internal Migration, Labor Market, Gravity Model, Turkey, Antalya, Muğla

Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’nin güneybatısında yer alan Antalya ve Muğla illeri son zamanlarda iç göç için birer mıknatıs haline geldiler. Daha önce yaptığımız bir araştırmada, bu illere göçü doğuran dinamiklerin, pek çok bakımdan, iç göçü geleneksel mekânlara çeken dinamiklerden farklı olduğuna dikkat çekmiştik. Bu çalışmada ise başka önemli yönlerden, Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan göçün geleneksel merkezlere olan göç ile ne kadar benzer olduğunu göstererek önceki bulgularımızı tamamlıyoruz. Bunu, EKK ve Robust regresyon metodları kullanarak, bahsi geçen her iki il için ayrı birer çekim (gravity) modeli saptayarak gerçekleştiriyoruz. Bulgularımıza göre, Antalya ve Muğlaya olan göç, çıkış noktasına olan uzaklık arttıkça olumsuz, çıkıs noktası ile varış noktası işsizlik oranları arasındaki fark, çıkiş noktasından alınmış geçmiş göç, çıkış ve varış noktalarının nüfusları ve çıkış noktasında meydana gelen afetlerin büyüklüğü arttıkça olumlu etkilenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İç Göç, İşgücü Piyasası, Çekim Modeli, Türkiye, Antalya, Muğla

Kaynakça

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