BRIC-3 Ülkelerinde Finansal Krizler ve Öncü Göstergeleri

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 43, 213 - 228, 25.01.2020

Hilal Alpdoğan , Mustafa Akal

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.12

Öz

KLR (1998) yöntemi kullanılarak 1990-2016 döneminde Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan ve Çin’de yaşanan finansal kriz tarihleri tespit edilmiştir. Literatürle desteklenen kriz tarihlerinin başlangıcından önceki 24 aylık kriz penceresinde sinyal veren on beş temel ekonomik gösterge incelenmiş ve gürültü sinyal oranı dikkate alınarak üç ülke için başarılı kriz tahmincileri belirlenmiştir. Belirlenen kriz tahmincileriyle ülkelerin içsel dinamikleri ve krizlerin ekonomiyi etkileme kanalları hakkında önemli bilgilere ulaşılmıştır. Brezilya, Rusya ve Çin’in ortak öncü göstergeleri ihracat, ithalat ve net borçluluk olarak bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Krizler, Sinyal Yaklaşımı, KLR Metodu, BRIC

Financial Crises and Signal Indicators in BRIC-3 Countries

Öz

Using the KLR (1998) methodolgy, the financial crises of Brazil, Russia, India and China have been determined in the period 1990-2016. The fifteen main economic indicators that signaled the 24-month crisis window before the beginning of the crisis dates supported by the literature were examined and successful crisis estimators were determined by considering the noise signal ratios for three countries. The identified crisis estimators provide important informations about the internal dynamics of countries and the channels of crisis affecting the economy. The common signal indicators are found as export, import and net borrowing liabilities for Brazil, Russia and China.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Crises, Signal Approach, KLR Methodology, BRIC

Kaynakça

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