New Indicators Developed for Assessing Optimal Reserve Level in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 47, 407 - 429, 25.01.2021

Esra N. Kılcı

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20

Cited By: 1

Öz

With the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, developing a new metric, which takes into account the dynamics of particularly developing and low-income countries, seemed necessary, as a result of traditional methods used to determine the reserve adequacy being partially inadequate and often giving conflicting signals. The aim of this study is to examine the reserve adequacy for Turkey by using the new metric developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to respond to the need of developing a new measure to evaluate reserve adequacy. The analysis covers the period from 2005:Q4 through 2019:Q4. In the analysis, the RALS (Residual Augmented Least Squares) ADF unit root test proposed by Im et al (2014) is employed. Our results support the evidence of reserve adequacy for Turkey in the relevant period. On the other hand, the reserves do not seem to have a stable trend.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reserve Adequacy, ARA Metric, International Reserves

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Öz

2008-09 Küresel Finansal Krizi ile birlikte, rezervlerin yeterliliğinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla kullanılan geleneksel yöntemlerin kısmen yetersiz kalması ve genellikle birbiriyle çelişen sinyaller vermesi, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve düşük gelir düzeyine sahip ülkeler için, ülkelere özgü dinamiklerin göz önünde bulundurularak, geleneksel yöntemlerde odaklanılan riskleri çok yönlü ele alan yeni bir metriğin geliştirilmesi ihtiyacını doğurmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için, Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından, rezerv yeterliliğinin tespit edilmesine yönelik geliştirilen yeni metriğin kullanılarak, rezervlerin yeterliliğinin araştırılmasıdır. Çalışma dönemi, 2005:Ç42019:Ç4 dönemi verilerini kapsamaktadır. Analizde, Im vd. (2014) tarafından geliştirilen, RALS (Residual Augmented Least Squares) ADF birimkök testi kullanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, Türkiye’de, söz konusu dönemde rezervlerin yeterli olduğunu; diğer yandan istikrarlı bir trende sahip olmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rezerv Yeterliliği, ARA Metriği, Uluslararası Rezervler

Kaynakça

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