A Convergence Analysis on the Investment Development Path Approach

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 48, 489 - 510, 28.04.2021

Şekip Yazgan , Reşat Ceylan , Şükrü Mollavelioğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.02.23

Öz

This study, which examines whether the investment development path curves of the developed and developing countries show convergence behaviour in the 1970-2018 period, has two main objectives. The first is to analyse whether foreign direct investment eliminates the development differences between countries based on the investment development path approach. Using the non- linear unit root tests developed recently, the second is to investigate whether the convergence behaviour of the investment development path curves is affected by macroeconomic shocks. According to the findings, these countries' investment development path curves exhibit a non-linear convergence behaviour, and therefore the convergence process is affected by macroeconomic shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Investment Development Path Approach, Convergence Hypothesis, Non-Linear Unit Root Tests

Yatırım Gelişme Yolu Yaklaşımı Üzerine Bir Yakınsama Analizi

Öz

Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere ait yatırım gelişme yolu eğrilerinin 1970-2018 döneminde yakınsama davranışı gösterip göstermediğinin incelendiği bu çalışmanın iki temel amacı bulunmaktadır. Bunlardan birincisi, yatırım gelişme yolu yaklaşımından hareketle küreselleşme sürecinin temel araçlarından olan doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ülkeler arasındaki gelişmişlik farklılıklarını ortadan kaldırıp kaldırmadığını analiz etmektir. İkincisi ise, son dönemlerde geliştirilen doğrusal olmayan birim kök testlerini kullanarak, yatırım gelişme yolu eğrilerinin yakınsama davranışının ortaya çıkan makroekonomik şoklardan etkilenip etkilenmediğini araştırmaktır. Elde edilen bulgular, söz konusu ülkelerin yatırım gelişme yolu eğrilerinin doğrusal olmayan bir yapıda yakınsama davranışı sergilediğini ve dolayısıyla yakınsama sürecinin makroekonomik şoklardan etkilendiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yatırım Gelişme Yolu Yaklaşımı, Yakınsama Hipotezi, Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testleri

Kaynakça

• Apergis, N. (2009), “Foreign Direct Investment Inward and Outward; Evidence from Panel Data, Developed and Developing Economies, and Open and Closed Economies”, The American Economist, 54(2), 21-27.
• Barro, R.J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407- 443.
• Barro, R.J. & X. Sala-i-Martin (1992), “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, 100, 223-251.
• Barry, F. & H. Görg & A. McDowell (2002), “Outward FDI and the Investment Development Path of a Late-Industrializing Economy: Evidence from Ireland”, Regional Studies, 37, 341-349.
• Bellak, C. (2001), “The Austrian Investment Development Path”, Transnational Corporations, 10, 107-134.
• Bernard, A.B. & S.N. Durlauf (1995), “Convergence in International Output”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10(2), 97-108.
• Bierens, H.J. (1997), “Nonparametric Cointegration Analysis”, Journal of Econometrics, 77(2), 379-404.
• Buckley, P.J. & F.B. Castro (1998), “The Investment Development Path: the Case of Portugal”, Transnational Corporations, 7, 1-15.
• Canarella, G. & R. Gupta & S.M. Miller & T. Omay (2020), “Does real UK GDP have a Unit Root? Evidence from a Multi-Century Perspective”, Applied Economics, 52(10), 1070-1087.
• Ceylan, R. (2010), “Yakınsama Hipotezi: Teorik Yaklaşımlar”, Sosyoekonomi, 11(11), 47-60.
• Davies, R.B. (1977), “Hypothesis Testing When a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only Under the Alternative”, Biometrika, 64, 247-254.
• Dunning, J.H. (1980), “Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production-Some Empirical Tests”, Journal of International Business Studies, 11(1), 9-31.
• Dunning, J. H. (1981), “Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries: Towards a Dynamic or Developmental Approach”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, No. 119, 30-64.
• Dunning, J.H. & R. Narula (1996), “The Investment Development Path Revisited: Some Emerging Issues”, içinde: J.H. Dunning & R. Narula (eds.), Foreign Direct Investment and Governments, Routledge, London, 1-41.
• Duran, J.J. & F. Ubeda (2001), “The Investment Development Path: A New Empirical Approach and Some Theoretical Issues”, Transnational Corporations, 10(2), 1-34.
• Enders, W. & J. Lee (2012), “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey-Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economic Letters, 117(1), 196-99.
• Fonseca, M.R. & A. Mendoça & J. Passos (2007), “The Investment Development Path Hypothesis: Evidence from the Portuguese Case - A Panel Data Analysis”, Technical University of Lisbon, School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics Working Papers WP 021/2007/DE, 1-29.
• Fonseca, M.R. & A. Mendoça & J. Passos (2016), “The Paradigm of The Investment Development Path: Does it Holds for Portugal? Evidence for The Period 1990-2011”, Working Paper CEsA CSG 139/2016, 1-21.
• Gallant, A. & G. Souza (1991), “On The Asymptotic Normality of Fourier Flexible Form Estimates”, Journal of Econometrics, 50(3), 329-353.
• Gorynia, M. & J. Nowak & P. Tarka & R. Wolniak (2012), “Foreign Direct Investment in New EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe An Investment Development Path, Perspective”, içinde: M. Marinov & S. Marinova (eds.), Internationalization of Emerging Economies and Firms, Palgrave Macmillan, 64-86.
• Gorynia, M. & J. Nowak & P. Trąpczyńskia & R. Wolniak (2019), “Friend or Foe? On the Role of Institutional Reforms in the Investment Development Path of Central and East European Economies”, International Business Review, 28(3), 575-587.
• Güriş, B. & B.Y. Tıraşoğlu & M. Tıraşoğlu (2016), “Türkiye’de Satın alma Gücü Paritesi Geçerli mi?: Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testleri”, Social Sciences Research Journal, 5(1), 30-42.
• Harvey, D.I. & S.J. Leybourne & B. Xiao (2008), “A Powerful Test for Linearity When the order of İntegration is Unknown”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(3), 1-24.
• Kapetanios, G. & Y. Shin & A. Snell (2003), “Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379.
• Kılıçaslan, Y. & Y. Gürel-Üçdoruk & G. Önder & Z. Önder-Karal (2018), Türkiye’nin Yurt Dışı Yatırımları Neden? Nereye? Nasıl?, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
• Kılıçaslan, Y. & Y. Gürel-Üçdoruk & G. Önder & Z. Önder-Karal (2019), “Why Do Turkish Firms Go Abroad to Invest?”, EconWorld Working Paper Series, No: 2019-001.
• Kosztowniak, A. (2018), “Changes of Inward and Outward FDI Stocks in Poland and the Stage of the Investment Development Path”, Journal of Management and Financial Sciences (JMFS), Vol XIII, No. 35, 41-60.
• Kruse, R. (2011), “A New Unit Root Test Against ESTAR Based on a Class of Modified Statistics”, Statistical Papers, 52, 71-85.
• Kula, F. (2003), “Yatırım Gelişme Yolu Yaklaşımı: Teori ve Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Gözlemler”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17, 57-78.
• Leybourne, S. & P. Newbold & D. Vougas (1998), “Unit roots and smooth transitions”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, 83-97.
• Luukkonen, R. & P. Saikkonen & T. Teräsvirta (1988), “Testing Linearity Against Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Biometrika, 75(3), 491-499.
• Ma, K. (2012), “An Empirical Analysis on Chinese Outward FDI Development Path Based on IDP and IPI Models”, Contemporary Logistics, 06, 81-85.
• Narula, R. (1996), Multinational Investment and Economic Structure, Routledge, London.
• Narula, R. & J. Guimon (2010), “The Investment Development Path in A Globalised World: Implications For Eastern Europe”, Eastern Journal of European Studies, 1(2), 5-19.
• Narula, R. & J.H. Dunning (2010), “Multinational Enterprises, Development and Globalization: Some Clarifications and a Research Agenda”, Oxford Development Studies, 38(3), 263-287.
• Nelson, C.R. & C.I. Plosser (1982), “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomics Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139-162.
• Omay, T. & B. Ozcan & M. Shahbaz (2020), “Testing the Hysteresis Effect in The US State-level Unemployment Series”, Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 329-348.
• Omay, T. & F. Emirmahmutoglu & S.J. Hussain-Shahzad (2021), “Comparison of Optimization Algorithms For Selecting The Fractional Frequency in Fourier Form Unit Root Tests”, Applied Economics, 53(7), 761-780.
• Omay, T. (2015), “Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier form to Approximate Smooth Breaks in Unit Root Testing”, Economics Letters, 134, 123-126.
• Shahbaz, M. & T. Omay & D. Roubaud (2019), “The Sharp and Smooth Breaks Unit Root Testing of Renewable Energy Consumption: The Way Forward”, The Journal of Energy and Development, 44(1/2), 5-40.
• TEPAV (2019), “Türkiye’ye Gelen ve Türkiye’den Giden Doğrudan Yatırımlardaki Gelişmeler”, TEPAV Bültenler, Ağustos, S. 15.
• UNCTAD (2020), <https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?Reportld=96740>, 13.07.2020.