E7 Ülkeleri ile Türkiye Arasındaki Dış Ticaretin Panel Veri Analizi: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51, 407 - 426, 31.01.2022

Makber Tekin , Fahriye Merdivenci

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.20

Cited By: 2

Öz

Çekim Modeline göre ülkeler arasındaki dış ticaret, GSYH ve ülkeler arasındaki mesafe değişkenleriyle açıklanabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ve E7 ülkeleri arasında gerçekleşen ticaret hacmine etki eden faktörleri belirlemek ve Çekim Modelinin ticaret hacmini açıklamaya uygunluğunu panel veri analiz ile test etmektir. Dış ticaret ilişkisini etkilemesi beklenen Linder ve nüfus ise modelde açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda, 2000-2018 yılları arasında Çekim Modeli değişkenlerinin Türkiye ve E7 ülkeleri arasındaki ticaret hacmini anlamlı bir şekilde yordadığı bulunmuştur. Buna göre Türkiye’nin E7 ülkeleri ile gerçekleştirdiği ticaret ilişkisi, GSYH ve E7 ülkelerinin nüfusları ile pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Ayrıca dış ticaretin, mesafe ile negatif ve anlamlı ilişkisinin olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uluslararası Ticaret, E7, Çekim Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi

A Panel Data Analysis of Foreign Trade Between E7 Countries and Turkey: The Gravity Model Approach

Öz

According to the Gravity Model, international trade should be explained based on GDP and geographical distances among countries. This study aims to determine the factors affecting global trade volume among Turkey and E7 countries and test whether the Gravity Model is suitable for explaining the trade volume using panel data analysis. Linder and population variables that are expected to affect the foreign trade were used as explanatory variables in the model. The study results confirmed that the variables in the gravity model significantly explained international trade among Turkey and E7 countries between the years 2000-2018. According to the results, the international trade of Turkey to E7 countries is positively and significantly related to the GDP and the population variables. Moreover, distance due to geographical location was negatively and significantly linked to international trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Trade, E7, Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

• Aitken, N.D. (1973), “The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis”, American Economic Association, 63(5), 881-892.
• Anderson J.E. & E. Wincoop (2003), “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle”, NBER Working Paper Series, Paper No. 8079.
• Anderson, J.E. (1979), “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
• Armington, P.S. (1969), “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production”, IMF Staff Papers, 16(1), 159-176.
• Ata, S. (2012), “Türkiye’nin İhracat Potansiyeli: Çekim Modeli Çerçevesinde Bir İnceleme”, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 13 Ekim, Kazakistan, 276-282.
• Bai, J. & C. Kao (2006), “On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence”, Contributions to Economic Analysis, 274, 3-30.
• Balassa, B. (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Jiconomics, 5,181-189.
• Baldwin, R. & D. Taglioni (2011), “Gravity Chains: Estimating Bilateral Trade Flows When Parts And Components Trade Is Important”, NBER Working Paper, 16672.
• Baltagi, B.H. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New Jersey.
• Baltagi, B.H. et al. (2003), “A Generalized Design For Bilateral Trade Flow Models”, Economics Letters, 80, 391-397.
• Banerjee, A. & J.L. Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006), “Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence”, in: ECB Working Paper Series, European Central Bank.
• Batra, A. (2006), “India’s Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach”, Global Economic Review, 35(3), 327-361.
• Baytar, R.A. (2012), “Türkiye ve BRIC Ülkeleri Arasındaki Ticaret Hacminin Belirleyicileri: Panel Çekim Modeli Analizi”, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(21), 403-424.
• Bergstrand, J.H. (1985), “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-481.
• Bergstrand, J.H. (1989), “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 143-153.
• Breuss F. & P. Egger (1999), “How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?”, Empirica, 26(2), 81-94.
• Brun, J.F. et al. (2005), “Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model”, The World Bank Economic Review, 19(1), 99-120.
• Carrère, C. (2006), “Revisiting The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows With Proper Specification of The Gravity Model”, European Economic Review, 50(2), 223-247.
• Choi, C. (2002), “Linder hypothesis revisited”, Applied Economics Letters, 9, 601-605.
• De Benedictis, L. & D. Taglioni (2011), “The gravity model in international trade”, in: L. De Benedictis & L. Salvatici (eds.), The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies: An Analysis Through Gravity Models, (55-90), Springer, (Chapter 4).
• Deardorff, A. (1998), “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?”, in: J.A. Frankel (ed.), In The Regionalization of the World Economy, (7-32), Chicago: University of Chicago.
• Demiral, M. vd. (2016), “Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 85-102.
• Dinçer, G. (2013), “Dış Ticaret Kuramında Çekim Modeli: Türkiye-AB Ticaretinin Analizi”, Doktora Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi Eğitim Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Ankara.
• Dinçer, G. (2014), “Dış Ticaret Kuramında Çekim Modeli”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 24(88), 1-34.
• Dinh, T B. et al. (2011), “Applying Gravity Model to Analyze Trade Activities of Vietnam”, External Economics Review, No: 69.
• Egger, P. (2002), “An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials”, The World Economy, 25(2), 297-312.
• Eichengreen, B. & D. Irwin (eds.) (1998), The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, London.
• Endoh, M. (1999), “Trade creation and trade diversion in the EEC, the LAFTA and the CMEA: 1960-1994”, Applied Economics, 31(2), 207-216.
• Fidrmuc, J. (2009), “Gravity Models in Integrated Panels”, Empir Econ, 37,435-446.
• Filippini, C. & V. Molini (2003), “The Determinants of East Asian Trade Flows: A Gravity Equation Approach”, Journal of Asian Economics, 14(5), 695-711.
• Helpman, E. & P. Krugman (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Helpman, E. et al. (2008), “Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners And Trading Volumes”, NBER Working Paper, 12927.
• Holly, S. et al. (2010), “A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the USA”, Journal of Econometrics, 158, 160-173.
• Hsiao, C. (2005), “Why Panel Data?”, The Singapore Economic Review, 50(2), 143-154.
• Işık, N. (2016), “Türkiye ile Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütü Arasındaki Ticaret Akımlarının Panel Çekim Modeli İle Tahmini”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (17), 151-174.
• Karagöz, K. (2008), “Türkiye’nin Turizm Potansiyeli: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı”, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(2), 149-156.
• Kepaptsoglou, K. et al. (2010), “The Gravity Model Specification for Modeling International Trade Flows and Free Trade Agreement Effects: A 10-Year Review of Empirical Studies”, The Open Economics Journal, 3, 1-13.
• Khandare, V.B. (2011), “Impact of Globalization on International Trade (With Special Reference to India)”, International Journal of Trade and Services, 3(1), 1-14.
• Kimura, F. & H. Lee (2006), “The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services”, Review of World Economics, 142(1), 93-121.
• Koy, A. vd. (2019), Ekonometri Uygulamaları, Seçkin Yayıncılık, Ankara.
• Lampe, M. (2008), “Bilateral Trade Flows in Europe, 1857-1875: A New Dataset”, Res Econ Hist., 26(1), 81-155.
• Leamer, E. & J. Levinsohn (1995), “International Trade Theory: The Evidence”, NBER Working Paper No. 4940, 1-54.
• Michaely, M. (1977), “Exports and Growth An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4, 49-53.
• Nguyen, K. (2009), “Gravity Model by Panel Data Approach An Empirical Application with Implications for the ASEAN Free Trade Area”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(3), 266-277.
• Nitsch, V. (2006), “Does the G7/G8 promote trade?”, Economics Letters, 94, 136-140.
• Oguledo V. & C.R. Macphee (1994), “Gravity Models: A Reformulation and an Application to Discriminatory Trade Arrangements”, Applied Economics, 26(2), 107-120.
• Paas, T. (2000), “The Gravity Approach for Modeling International Trade Patterns for Economies in Transition”, IAER, 6(4), 633-648.
• Paas, T. (2003), “Regional Integration and International Trade in the Context of EU Eastward Enlargement”, Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA) Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Discussion Paper No. 218: 1-30.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2015), Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford University Press.
• Porojan, A. (2001), “Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited”, Open Econ Rev, 12, 265-280.
• Pöyhönen, P. (1963), “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Bd. 90, 93-100.
• Price Waterhouse Coopers (2008), The World in 2050: Beyond The BRIC’s A Broader Look At Emerging Market Growth Prospects, PWC London UK.
• Price Waterhouse Coopers (2017), The Long View How will the Global Economic Order Change by 2050, PWC London UK.
• Rasoulinezhad, E. & G. Seong (2016), “A Panel Data Analysis of South Korea’s Trade with OPEC Member Countries: The Gravity Model Approach”, Iran.Econ.Rev., 20(2), 203-224.
• Samadder, S. et al. (2012), “Scaling Analysis of Prime Stock Exchange Indices of the Emerging Seven (E7) Countries”, Int J Appl Comput Sci Math, 2(1), 12-22.
• Sevüktekin, M. & M. Nargeleçekenler (2010), Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi, Geliştirilmiş 3. Baskı, Nobel Yayın, İstanbul.
• Sorhun, E. (2013), “Türkiye’nin Eksik Dış Ticareti, Ticari Potansiyeli ve Yeni Fırsatlar”, DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 28(1), 25-47.
• Stack, M.M. (2009), “Regional Integration and Trade: Controlling for Varying Degrees of Heterogeneity in the Gravity Model”, The World Economy, 32(5), 772-789.
• Tataoğlu, F.Y. (2018), Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı, Beta Basım Yayım, İstanbul.
• Tatlıcı, Ö. & A. Kızıltan (2011), “Çekim Modeli: Türkiye’nin İhracatı Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Atatürk Ü. İİBF Dergisi, 10. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu Özel Sayısı, 287-299.
• Thursby, J.G. & M.C. Thursby (1987), “Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69(3), 488-495.
• Tinbergen, J. (1962), Shaping the World Economy, New York, The Twentieth Century Fund.
• Wall, H.J. (1999), Using The Gravity Model to Estimate The Costs of Protection, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• Westerlund, J. (2005), “New Simple Tests for Panel Cointegration”, Econometric Reviews, 24(3), 297-316. World Bank (2020), <https://data.worldbank.org/>, 15.07.2020.
• Yaşar, H.N. (2011), “Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye Arasındaki Gümrük Birliği Çerçevesinde Türkiye İhracatının Çekim Modeli Uygulaması”, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir.
• Zarzoso, I.M. & F.N. Lehmann (2003), “Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows”, Journal of Applied Economics, 6(2), 291-316.