Mali Konsolidasyon Programlarının Özel Tüketim Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: PIIGS Ülkelerine Yönelik Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 53, 347 - 369, 29.07.2022

Hatice Dayar , Ebru Yalçın

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.18

Öz

Bütçe dengesinin çeşitli nedenlerle bozulması sonucunda dengenin tekrar kurulması amacıyla mali konsolidasyon programları uygulanmaktadır. Mali konsolidasyon, kamu açıklarını ve borç stokunu azaltmaya yönelik uygulanan daraltıcı maliye politikaları olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışmada, mali konsolidasyon programlarının özel tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi 1995-2020 yılı verilerine dayalı olarak PIIGS (Portekiz, İtalya, İrlanda, Yunanistan, İspanya) ülkelerini içeren panel veri analizi ile ortaya koyulmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında mali konsolidasyon programlarının ülkeler arasında farklı etkiler oluşturduğu görülmüştür. İrlanda ve İtalya’da genişletici mali daralma hipotezini destekleyici bulgular elde edilmiştir. Yunanistan’da ise Keynesyen etkileri destekleyen sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Örneklem yıllarından olan 2019-2020 yıllarında yaşanmış olan ve çalışmaya dahil edilen Covid-19 salgını nedeniyle uygulanan hükümet programlarının ise Portekiz, İtalya ve İrlanda’da özel tüketim harcamalarını olumlu etkilediği görülmüştür. Bu durum mali konsolidasyon dönemlerinde genişletici mali daralma hipotezinin; genişleme dönemlerinde ise Geleneksel Keynesyen modelin geçerli olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mali Konsolidasyon, Kamu Borç Stoku, Bütçe Açığı, Özel Tüketim Harcamaları

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation Programs on Private Consumption Expenditures: Panel Data Analysis for PIIGS Countries

Öz

As a result of the deterioration of the budget balance for various reasons, fiscal consolidation programs are implemented to restore the balance. Fiscal consolidation is a contractionary fiscal policy applied to reduce public deficits and debt stock. This study revealed the effect of fiscal consolidation programs on private consumption expenditures by panel data analysis including PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) countries based on the 1995-2020 data. In the light of the findings, it has been seen that fiscal consolidation programs have different effects between countries. While Ireland and Italy supported the expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis and revealed findings, results supporting Keynesian effects were reached in Greece. It has been observed that the government programs implemented due to the Covid-19 epidemic, which was experienced in 2019-2020, one of the exemplary years and included in the study as a dummy variable, positively affected private consumption expenditures in Portugal, Italy and Ireland. In this case, the expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis in fiscal consolidation periods; shows that the Traditional Keynesian model is valid during the expansion periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt Stock, Budget Deficit, Private Consumption Expenditures

Kaynakça

• Afonso, A. (2001), “Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15”, ISEG Economics Department, Working Paper, 1-47.
• Alesina, A. & R. Perotti (1995a), “Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries”, NBER Working Paper, No: 5214.
• Alesina, A. & R. Perotti (1995b), “Reducing Budget Deficits. Conference on Growing Government Debt”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3, 113-134.
• Alesina, A. & R. Perotti (1997), “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, 44, 210-248.
• Alesina, A. & S. Ardagna (1998), “Tales of Fiscal Contractions,” Economic Policy, 27, 487-545.
• Alesina, A. et al. (1998), “The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 197-266.
• Alesina, A. et al. (2014), “The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations”, Journal of International Economics, 21, 205-48.
• Amo-Yartey, C. et al. (2012), “The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean”, IMF Working Paper, No: /12/276.
• Arestis, P. et al. (2018), “Does Fiscal Consolidation Promote Economic Growth and Employment? Evidence From The PIIGS Countries”, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 15(3), 289-312.
• Barreto, H. & F. Howland (2005), Omitted Variable Bias, Introductory Econometrics: Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Microsoft Excel, Cambridge UniversityPress.
• Bertola, G. & A. Drazen (1993), “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity”, The American Economic Review, 83(1), 11-26.
• Bozkurt, İ. (2019), “Mali Konsolidasyon-Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İzmir Kâtip Çelebi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Maliye ve Mali Yönetim Anabilim Dalı.
• Carriere-Swallow, M.Y. et al. (2018), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America”, IMF Working Paper, No: 18/142.
• Cour, P. et al. (1996), “The Costs of Fiscal Adjustment Revisited: How Strong is the Evidence?”, CEPII Working Paper, 96-16.
• Devries, P. et al. (2011), “A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation”, IMF Working Paper, No: 128.
• Drakopoulos, S.A. (2021), “Theories of Consumption”, MPRA Paper No. 108215.
• Dünya Bankası (2021a), <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD>, 01.08.2021.
• Dünya Bankası (2021b), <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.GOVT.ZS>, 01.08.2021.
• Düzgüneş, O. & H. Akman (1985), Varyasyon Kaynakları, A.Ü. Zir. Fak. Yay. 954, 151, Ankara.
• Erdoğan, L. (2007), “ Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 117-132.
• Feldstein, M. (1982), “Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand”, Journal of Monetary Economics, (9), 1-20.
• Giavazzi, F. & M. Pagano (1990), “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries”, in: O.J. Blanchard & S. Fischer (eds.), NBER Macroeconomic Annual (75-110), Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Giavazzi, F. & M. Pagano (1995), “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, (5), 75-122.
• Giavazzi, F. et al. (2000), “Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries”, European Economic Review, 44(7), 1259-1289.
• Giavazzi, F. ve M. Pagano (1996), “Non-KeynesianEffects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Evidence”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, (3), 67-103.
• IMF (1993), “Structural Budget Indicators for the Major Industrial Countries”, World Economic Outlook, 99-103.
• IMF (1995), “Structural Fiscal Balances in Smaller Industrial Countries”, World Economic Outlook.
• IMF (2010), “From Stimulus to Consolidation: Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced And Emerging Economies”, Policy Papers.
• İlgün, M.F. (2010), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezinin Temelleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, (35), 233-253.
• Jeong, K.J. (2017), “Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in 18 OECD Countries”, Seoul Journal of Economics, (30), 51-91.
• Krugman, P. (2010, July 1), “Myths of Austerity”, New York Times Op-Ed Column.
• McDermott, C.J. & R.F. Wescott (1996), “An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments”, Staff Papers- International MonetaryFund, 43(4).
• OECD (1996), “The Experience With Fiscal Consolidation in OECD Countries”, Economic Outlook, 59, 33-41.
• OECD (2011), “Fiscal Consolidation: Targets, Plans and Measures”, OECD Journal on Budgeting, Vol.2011/2.
• OECD (2021a), <https://data.oecd.org/socialexp/social-benefits-to-households.htm>, 02.08.2021.
• OECD (2021b), <https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm>, 02.08.2021.
• Perotti, R. (1999), “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(4), 1399-1436.
• Perotti, R. (2011), “The ‘Austerity Myth’: Gain without Pain?”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No:17571.
• Romer, C. & D. Romer (2007), “The Macroeconomics Effects of Tax Change: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks”, NBER Working Paper, 13264.
• Şen, H. & A. Kaya (2017), “Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz”, Sosyoekonomi, 25(34), 107-143.