Do Increases and Decreases in Non-renewable Energy Consumption Have the Same Effect on Growth in Türkiye?

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 60, 51 - 71, 28.04.2024

Serkan Göksu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.03

Öz

This study examines the relationship between fossil energy consumption (FEC) and economic growth by applying the non-linear ARDL method in the Türkiye sample. This relationship was addressed in 3 different models to eliminate the multicollinearity between the oil, natural gas, and coal variables that make up the FEC. According to the analysis results, all models have an asymmetric cointegration between the variables. In all models, the effect of decreases in energy consumption on economic growth is more dominant than increases in the long run. According to the causality results, the neutrality hypothesis is valid for coal consumption, the feedback hypothesis is valid for natural gas consumption, and the growth hypothesis is valid for oil consumption.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Consumption, Non-linear Cointegration, Growth, NARDL, Non-Renewable Energy

Proje Numarası

Yoktur.

Türkiye’de Yenilenemeyen Enerji Tüketimindeki Artış ve Azalışların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi Aynı Mıdır?

Öz

Bu çalışmada fosil enerji tüketimi (FEC) ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Türkiye örnekleminde doğrusal olmayan ARDL yöntemi uygulanarak incelenmiştir. Bu ilişki, FEC’i oluşturan petrol, doğal gaz ve kömür değişkenleri arasındaki çoklu doğrusal bağlantıyı ortadan kaldırmak için 3 farklı modelde ele alınmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre oluşturulan tüm modellerde değişkenler arasında asimetrik bir eşbütünleşme bulunmaktadır. Tüm modellerde, enerji tüketimindeki azalmaların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, uzun dönemdeki artışlardan daha baskındır. Nedensellik sonuçlarına göre kömür tüketimi için yansızlık hipotezi, doğal gaz tüketimi için geri besleme hipotezi ve petrol tüketimi için büyüme hipotezi geçerlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Tüketimi, Asimetrik Eşbütünleşme, Büyüme, NARDL, Yenilenemez Enerji

Destekleyen Kurum

Yoktur.

Proje Numarası

Yoktur.

Teşekkür

Yoktur.

Kaynakça

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