Türkiye ve AB-Dışı Başlıca Ticaret Ortakları Arasındaki J Eğrisi Etkisi: Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 60, 259 - 290, 28.04.2024

Alper Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.13

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için J Eğrisi hipotezi analiz edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda, Türk lirasında meydana gelen devalüasyonların, revalüasyonlardan istatistiki olarak farklı olup olmadığı, Asimetrik Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testine ek olarak doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL eş bütünleşme yöntemi ile de incelenmiştir. Doğrusal modelden elde edilen sonuçlara göre J eğrisi etkisi sadece Rusya ve BAE için tespit edilmiştir ve elde edilen uzun dönem katsayıları istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Bu sonuçlara göre Türk lirasının değer kaybetmesi, söz konusu partnerlerle ticarette dengeyi olumlu etkilemekte ancak Türk lirasının değerlendiği durumlarda negatif etki ortaya çıkmaktadır. Buna mukabil, kur değişkeninde ait pozitif ve negatif değişkenler, işaret, katsayı büyüklüğü ve istatistiki önem seviyesi olarak farklılık gösterdiği için asimetrik ilişki reddedilememekte ve bu bağlamda doğrusal olmayan model daha fazla kanıt sunmaktadır. Bu yöntemde J Eğrisi etkisi yedi partnerin üçünde (Hindistan, ABD ve BAE) gözlemlenmiştir. Üçüncü olarak, kısa ve uzun dönem arasında Türk lirasında oluşan değerlenme, ticaret dengesini etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, hata düzeltme parametresi, uzun dönemde, kısa döneme göre denge durumuna daha hızlı dönüldüğüne işaret etmektedir. Son olarak, kur değişkeni ile ticaret dengesi arasında, yukarıda bahsedilen dört ticaret partneri özelinde nedensellik ilişkisine dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla belli ticari partnerlerle olan ilişkilerde kur politikalarının dikkate alınması gereken bir belirleyici olduğu söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

J Eğrisi, Ticaret Dengesi, Döviz Kurları, Asimetrik Etki, Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL

Proje Numarası

Yok

Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach

Öz

This research analysed the bilateral J-curve phenomenon in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, we applied both the linear and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) co-integration methods, in addition to the asymmetric Toda-Yamamoto causality test, to examine whether the impact of Turkish lira appreciations differs from that of lira depreciation. The findings from the linear model indicate statistically significant coefficients for the long term, and J-curve effects were observed in the case of two countries: Russia and the UAE. This suggests that when the Turkish lira depreciates, it positively affects Turkey's trade balance with these partners; however, lira appreciations have a negative impact. In contrast, the non-linear model provides more evidence, with the results revealing that asymmetry cannot be ignored, as the positive and negative variables exhibit differences in signs, magnitudes, and levels of significance. We found the J-curve effect for only three countries (India, USA, and UAE) out of seven partners in this model. Third, the lira evaluation between the short and long run affected the external balance. Furthermore, the long-run error correction mechanisms converge to steady-state equilibrium faster. Lastly, there is a unidirectional or bilateral linkage between the FX rate and the external deficit for these four partners. Therefore, exchange rate policies are a determinant that should be considered in relationships with certain trading partners.

Anahtar Kelimeler

J-Curve, Trade balance, Exchange rate, Asymmetry effects, Nonlinear ARDL

Destekleyen Kurum

Yok

Proje Numarası

Yok

Teşekkür

-

Kaynakça

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