Türkiye’de Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR Zaman Serisi Eşbütünleşme Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 64, 471 - 492

Selçuk Tazegül , Tuncer Yılmaz , Mehmet Fatih Aslantaş , Mehmet Fatih Çapanoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.02.20

Öz

Vergi gelirleri bir ülkede maliye politikalarının yürütülmesinde, kamu gelirleri içerisinde en önemli gelir kaynağı olarak gösterilmektedir. Vergi gelirlerinin pozitif ya da negatif yönde değişimi devletlerin ekonomik, sosyal, siyasi konjonktürlerinde farklı değişimler meydana getirebileceğinden vergi gelirleri devletler için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Öte yandan işletmeler açısından da önemli harcama kaynaklarından biri olan vergi, ekonomik ve politik etkenlerden önemli ölçüde etkilenebilmektedir. Bu etkenler dikkate alınarak yapılan bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik politika belirsizliği ile toplam vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Belirsizlik ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişki Johansen eşbütünleşme, DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR istatistiksel model analizleri ile test edilmiştir. Belirsizlik ve vergi gelirlerinin yanı sıra, oluşturulan ekonometrik modelde faiz, işsizlik oranı, döviz kuru ve sanayi üretim endeksi kontrol değişkeni olarak kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerde değişkenlerin 2008Q1-2023Q4 dönemine ait çeyreklik zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Johansen testinde Türkiye’de toplam vergi gelirleri ile politik ve ekonomik belirsizlik arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşmenin olduğu ve DOLS, FMOLS ile CCR yöntemlerinden elde edilen regresyon katsayı sonuçlarında belirsizliğin toplam vergi gelirleri üzerinde önemli düzeyde azaltıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin, ekonomik sistemde oluşturduğu negatif etkiye bağlı olarak vergi gelirlerini azalttığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Vergi Gelirleri, DOLS, FMOLS, CCR

The Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tax Revenues in Türkiye: DOLS, FMOLS and CCR Time Series Cointegration Approach

Öz

Tax revenues are considered the most significant source of public income when implementing fiscal policy within a country. Whether positive or negative, changes in tax revenue can lead to various shifts in states’ economic, social, and political dynamics, making tax revenues highly critical for governments. On the other hand, taxes, as a significant expenditure for businesses, can be substantially influenced by economic and political factors. Considering these factors, this study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and total tax revenues in Türkiye. The relationship between uncertainty and tax revenues was tested using Johansen Cointegration, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) statistical model analyses. In addition to uncertainty and tax revenue, the econometric model included interest rates, unemployment rates, exchange rates, and industrial production indices as control variables. The analysis utilised quarterly time series data spanning from 2008Q1 to 2023Q4. The Johansen test indicated a long-run cointegration relationship between total tax revenue and political and economic uncertainty in Türkiye. Furthermore, the regression coefficient results derived from DOLS, FMOLS and CCR methods revealed that uncertainty significantly reduces total tax revenues. In conclusion, the study found that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on tax revenues due to the adverse effects it creates within the economic system.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Political Uncertainty, Tax Revenues, DOLS, FMOLS, CCR

Kaynakça

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