The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 64, 341 - 361

Vildan Aygün Alıcı , Alaattin Kızıltan

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.02.15

Öz

This study aims to emphasise the importance of a skilled labor force within the context of Türkiye’s Decent Work Policy. It examines the long-term relationship between non-precarious employment and broadly defined unemployment, using quarterly data from 2009 to 2023. The long-term relationship between the series, found to be stationary at the first difference, was analysed by using the Fourier-Shin cointegration test. Given the results of FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators, all results were statistically significant. It was concluded that broadly defined unemployment caused a change between 0.66% and 0.69% in non-precarious employment in the long term, and the opposite effect occurred. The study’s calculation of non-precarious employment and broadly defined unemployment variables, as well as the examination of the relationship between these two variables for the first time, makes the study original.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Non-Precarious Employment, Broadly Defined Unemployment, Long-Term Relationship, Fourier-Shin Cointegration Test

Eğreti Olmayan İstihdamın Önemi ve Geniş Tanımlı İşsizlik ile İlişkisi: Fourier-Shin Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin İnsana Yakışır İş Politikası kapsamında nitelikli işgücünün önemi vurgulanmakta ve 2009-2023 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılarak eğreti olmayan istihdam ile geniş tanımlı işsizlik arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmektedir. Birinci farkta durağan olduğu bulunan seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR tahmin edicilerinin sonuçlarına bakıldığında, tüm sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Geniş tanımlı işsizliğin uzun dönemde eğreti olmayan istihdamda %0,66 ile %0,69 arasında, ters yönde değişime neden olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Çalışmada eğreti olmayan istihdam ve geniş tanımlı işsizlik değişkenlerinin yazarlar tarafından hesaplanması ve bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin ilk kez inceleniyor olması çalışmayı özgün kılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Eğreti Olmayan İstihdam, Geniş Tanımlı İşsizlik, Uzun Dönem İlişki, Fourier-Shin Eşbütünleşme Testi

Kaynakça

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